Nowra Race 7 Preview: Shuttering Tops Slow-Tempo Puzzle

A slow-tempo Nowra assignment where the pace map is the whole story, and Kingsley is happy to be against the favourite. Here is how Race 7 sets up.

The race

Nowra Race 7 is a 12-runner event worth $30,000, jumping at 4:50pm AEST on a true rail under overcast skies. The topweight is A Book Of Days (1) at 61kg, down to Karuta King (14) getting in light at 55kg. The market at release framed Royaltown (3) the clear favourite at a $3.50 market, with Alabama Hussy (4) and Lady Got Bling (8) next in the betting, while Kingsley's own read is materially different from those quotes in several places.

The pace picture

This is a slow-tempo race with a low pressure reading of 22.81 percent, and no runner projects to cross to a clear lead — the tightest settling position (ppir, where 1 is closest to the lead) belongs to A Book Of Days on a ppir of 2, so the speed is likely to be soft and controlled up front. Karuta King (ppir 3) and Alabama Hussy from barrier 1 (ppir 4) also settle handy, and in a race run at this tempo, that forward group has the map on its side.

The flip side is severe for the swoopers. Diamond Frost (2) maps right back on a ppir of 13, Sawmill (10) at 12, and Royaltown at 11 — all needing the race to fall their way against a slow speed. Lady Got Bling projects three wide with no cover on a ppir of 14, which is the hardest trip in the field to win from.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Shuttering (11), and he thinks the market is looking the wrong way. Rated $7 against a drifting $9.50 market this morning, she was trapped wide with no cover last start so that run reads better than the bare result, she is fitter third-up, and from barrier 4 she draws to save ground on the fence. She settles midfield on a ppir of 8, better placed than the deep closers.

His second pick Royaltown (3) is the market's favourite, rated $3.60 against a $3.50 market. Only three starts in and lightly raced with upside, he carries the best acceleration in the field and picks up Brodie Loy, a genuine booking. The query is the map — he settles back on a ppir of 11 and needs to make ground into a slow tempo.

His third pick Sawmill (10) is rated $16 against a $12 market. He trains at the track, has a solid record at the trip, and was held up hitting the line last time. The wide draw and a ppir of 12 are the concerns, but Kingsley rates the ability there.

His fourth pick Feedback (5) is rated $20 against a $23 market, so some overs at the quote. He needs the race to open up from a ppir of 6 given the slow tempo, but the turn of foot is there.

The metrics

Royaltown tops CAM, the composite ability rating, at camRank 1, ahead of Feedback (camRank 2) and Diamond Frost (camRank 3). Feedback is the standout on CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — at cswRank 1, with Diamond Frost second and Alabama Hussy third.

On cruising speed, the measure of a runner's sustainable tempo, A Book Of Days leads the field at cruisingRank 1, with Alabama Hussy next. Acceleration, the turn-of-foot rating, points straight to Royaltown at accelerationRank 1, then Feedback and Diamond Frost. The pattern is clear: the best pure ability and finishing burst sit with runners the map makes work hardest, while the forward horses own the cruising numbers.

The market at release had Shuttering drifting to a $9.50 quote and Royaltown holding at a $3.50 market, so Kingsley's rated $7 on Shuttering and rated $3.60 on Royaltown tell you where he sees the value.

What to watch: whether the slow tempo lets the forward runners dictate, or opens enough late for Royaltown's acceleration to reach Shuttering.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.