Newcastle Race 8 Preview: Uncle Harry Maps To Swoop
Newcastle Race 8 tips, rated prices and pace read: Uncle Harry draws in to swoop while the market underrates Kingsley's top pick. Full preview.
A nine-strong 1600m contest at Newcastle worth $45,000, run on a fine day over turf with the rail out seven metres. The story here is a top pick sitting at genuine overs and a couple of well-backed runners Kingsley is happy to take on.
The Race
Race 8 jumps at 4:55pm AEST on a fine track, surface turf, rail +7m entire. It is a compact field of nine with a clear class edge at the top of the ratings and a market this morning that, in Kingsley's read, has several runners a good deal shorter than the numbers justify. The weights range from Prince Of Sorts on 63kg down to Kahraba and So You Ready on 55kg.
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The Pace Picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 41.5 per cent, so this shapes as a controlled affair rather than a hot gallop. So You Ready (10) is the one that maps to lead on ppir, but the CAM read is bottom of the field and the comment flags a horse that dropped right out last start, so it is hard to build a case around that lead. Tact (7) settles handy from a low ppir with the tongue tie going on and is the runner most likely to dictate terms.
The shape suits the swoopers with tactical speed. Both of Kingsley's stronger picks battled on after wide runs with no cover last start and now draw in to get cover and save ground - a big positional turnaround for each. Fabrice (2) and Tom Cruising (5) map to get well back, which is a bigger ask into a controlled tempo.
Kingsley's Selections
His top pick is Uncle Harry (8), rated $4.40 against a $4.80 market this morning - the market has left him at overs. He fought on after a tough wide run last start, draws right in from barrier 2 to swoop, is fitter for three runs back, backs up quick and is a Newcastle horse with two wins at the track. He also carries the official Golden Bullet back tip.
His second pick and, in his words, the biggest threat, is Prince Of Sorts (1), rated $2.90 against a $3.30 market this morning. He battled on strongly after a rotten wide run and now gets the box seat from barrier 3. The only knock is the 63kg topweight; on the numbers he rates right up to these and drops into an easier race.
His third pick is Fabrice (2), rated $21 against a much shorter $15 market this morning. He had no favours last start caught wide and out on a limb, drops in class and maps to sit handy with Mitchell Bell a good booking.
His fourth pick is Kahraba (9), rated $67 against a $31 market this morning - minor claims at big odds. He gets in light at 55kg but the acceleration reads poorly and he wants further.
Worth noting who Kingsley is against: The Stars Align (3), rated $14 against a $7 market this morning, is one he is happy to take on given it maps a long way back and could not quicken last start; Rush Attack (6), rated $7.50 against a $4.80 market this morning, is a pass at 537 days since a win; and Tact, rated $11 against a $6 market this morning, is left alone on the ratings and a 0-from-7 record here.
Loved the way he fought on after a tough wide run with no cover last start, and now he draws right in to swoop with the acceleration to let down hard late. Fitter for 3 runs back, backs up quick and he's a Newcastle horse through and through with 2 wins here. Even better, the market's left him at overs. Official tip: Back. Top pick.
Battled on strong after a rotten wide run with no cover last start, and now he draws in to get the box seat from barrier 3 - big positional turnaround. Rates right up to these on the numbers and drops into an easier race. The 63kg topweight is the only knock. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top selection.
Had no favours last start - caught wide, out on a limb and weakened with plenty against him. Drops into an easier race and maps to sit handy. Bell a good booking. Third pick.
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Get today — $50The Metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating: Prince Of Sorts tops it (camRank 1), from Tact (camRank 2) and Uncle Harry (camRank 3). CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, again has Prince Of Sorts on top (cswRank 1), with Rush Attack next (cswRank 2) and Uncle Harry third (cswRank 3).
On cruising speed, the settled tempo a horse can hold, So You Ready leads (cruisingRank 1) ahead of Prince Of Sorts (cruisingRank 2). Acceleration, the turn of foot to let down late, is where the top pick stands alone: Uncle Harry is the field's best (accelerationRank 1), from Prince Of Sorts (accelerationRank 2) and The Stars Align (accelerationRank 3). Into a controlled tempo, that late kick is the weapon that matters.
What to watch: whether Uncle Harry gets the cover to save ground and unleash the field's best acceleration late from barrier 2.
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