Ballarat Race 6 Preview: Tips & Rated Prices, Aug 16
Ballarat Race 6 preview: a fast-run 4500m staying test, Kingsley's top four picks, rated prices versus the market and the pace map that decides it.
A $350,000 staying test over 4500m at Ballarat, run on a fine day with the rail out 10 metres the entire circuit. Nine go around at 3:15pm AEST, and the shape of the race is doing a lot of the talking.
The race
This is a genuine staying contest, and the numbers say it will be run at a serious clip. The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 64.39 per cent, so this is not a race that will dawdle and turn into a sprint home. Over 4500m that matters: the on-pace runners have to earn every metre, and the finishers get a race set up to their liking. Patrick Payne's Sing For Peace carries topweight of 69kg, while the bottom of the handicap sits on 64kg across four runners.
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The pace picture
Golden Garden (3) is the one that maps to the lead off barrier four, the only runner in the field with a ppir of 1. The trouble, on Kingsley's read, is that leading is no gift here with the speed on over this trip. Andy Win (2) settles next closest on a ppir of 3, with Hit The Road Jack (4) parked just off the speed on a ppir of 2 — an ideal spot for a swooper if the tempo does what the numbers suggest. Further back, Kingsley's top pick settles seventh on ppir, and his fourth pick is deeper still on a ppir of 8, so both need the pace to fall apart up front. Given the pressure reading, that is exactly the scenario the map is pointing to.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Sing For Peace (1), fresh off a Sandown win and stepping up 300m. It tops the class figures in the field and picks up a genuine upgrade with W Gordon aboard, and Kingsley rates it a real chance to carry the topweight given its finishing kick. He has it rated $4.20 against a $4.00 market this morning, so he sees no edge on price — the market has it about right.
His second pick, Hit The Road Jack (4), is the one he flags as the biggest threat. It owns the best finishing burst in the race by a clear margin, and a fast tempo over this trip sets it up to swoop late. It is racing well second-up, with only the 10-year-old legs against it. He rates it $6.50 versus a $6.00 market this morning.
His third pick Christmas (8) bolted in by 10 lengths last time and backs up quickly with a big weight drop. Kingsley sees a touch of value there, rating it $10 against an $11.00 market this morning, though the 700m rise in trip is the query. His fourth pick Saint Eustace (9) has finishing speed and drops in weight, but gets well back and rises sharply in distance, so it shapes more as a place hope. He rates it $61 against a $31.00 market this morning — plainly longer than the market has it.
There are no official tips flagged in this race.
Won at Sandown last start and steps up 300m here. Tops our class figures in the field and gets a genuine upgrade with Gordon in the saddle. Carries topweight but has the finishing kick to overcome it. Top pick, market's got it about right, so nothing to get carried away with on price.
Best finishing burst in the race by a clear margin, and a fast tempo over this trip sets it up perfectly to swoop late. Racing in good form and second-up. The 10-year-old legs are the only knock. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
Bolted in by 10 lengths last start and backs up quickly with a big weight drop. Early money there and it shapes as a touch of overs on our figures. Steps up 700m in trip, which is the query. Third pick.
Has a bit of finishing speed and drops in weight, so it could sneak into the placings late. Gets back and steps up sharply in trip though, so it's more a place hope. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is Kingsley's composite ability rating, and Hit The Road Jack tops the field on it (camRank 1), with Sing For Peace next best (camRank 2) and Saint Eustace third (camRank 3). On CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — Mr Lincoln (7) is the standout with cswRank 1, ahead of Hit The Road Jack at cswRank 2 and The Mighty Spar (5) at cswRank 3.
Cruising speed measures how easily a horse travels in a race, and there Golden Garden leads (cruisingRank 1) from Mr Lincoln (cruisingRank 2) and Sing For Peace (cruisingRank 3). Acceleration, the late-burst figure, is where the case for the top two firms up: Hit The Road Jack ranks best (accelerationRank 1), Sing For Peace second (accelerationRank 2) and Saint Eustace third (accelerationRank 3). Golden Garden, the likely leader, ranks near the bottom on that same figure (accelerationRank 8) — the reason Kingsley is happy to take it on.
What to watch
Watch whether Golden Garden can hold the front with the pressure at 64.39 per cent — if the leaders fold, the map hands it to the finishers Kingsley has at the top of his ticket.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.