Murwillumbah Race 7 Preview: A Very Fast Tempo Sets It Up

A $85,000 sprint over a fine track and a true rail, run at a tempo that could turn the whole race on its head. This is a race built for the closers, and Kingsley's value play settles closer than most of them.

The race

Murwillumbah Race 7 is a fourteen-runner contest jumping at 4:15pm AEST on Friday, worth $85,000 in prize money. Conditions are fine with the rail in the true position. On paper it is headed by a short-priced favourite in Rock Empire (4), but the shape of the race is where the story lives, and it points squarely at the horses coming from behind.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure figure of 93.23 per cent — as strong a speed setup as you will see. That much pressure up front punishes the leaders and rewards patience. Castillian (6) is the only runner who maps to the lead on the numbers, with a ppir of 1 (ppir measures where a horse settles, with 1 the closest to the front), and Atmosphere (7) at 2 rolls forward with him. But Atmosphere is facing a wall of speed out in front and does not quicken the way these need to, so leading here is a hard task rather than an advantage.

Behind them, the map is loaded with swoopers. Loch Eagle (1) settles right at the tail at ppir 14, Boom Torque (5) at 13 and Golden Cross (9) at 12 all get well back — and with this much tempo, that is where you want to be. Rock Empire settles midfield at ppir 8.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Rock Empire (4), second-up now and at its best at this stage of a prep with three wins from four second-up. It produced the peak run of the campaign off the canvas at Randwick last time, Maloney takes over and it maps midfield. He rates it $2.30 against a $2.15 market this morning, and while it heads his list he is plain about it: too short, and he prefers one at odds.

That one is his second pick Castillian (6), rock-hard fit third-up with a clear class edge on most of these. He rates it $9.50 against an $11.00 market this morning and calls it the best value play in the race — the one he is with at the price. It is also the official Good Roughie tip.

His third pick Loch Eagle (1) rates right on top and has the standout closing burst in the field. It gets a long way back, but with the speed on up front that sets up a late swoop; he forgives a check and a missed start last time. He rates it $9.50 against an $11.00 market this morning, calling the price overs. His fourth pick Golden Cross (9) won going away last start after missing the kick, and the way the speed is engaged suits it getting back. He rates it $8.50 against an $8.00 market this morning.

The metrics

Loch Eagle is the runner the numbers love. It tops the CAM (composite ability, camRank 1), tops the CSW (a class-speed-weight time rating, cswRank 1) and owns the best acceleration in the field by a clear margin (accelerationRank 1). That is the profile of a horse ready to pounce off a strong tempo.

Tenzing (2) sits second on both CSW and acceleration, but it flopped last start and the market is much shorter than Kingsley wants. Kipling's Journey (11) ranks second on CAM, though 54 starts and a tame effort last time work against it. Rock Empire ranks third on CSW.

For raw cruising speed — how fast a horse travels in its comfort zone — Atmosphere leads the field (cruisingRank 1), with High Dandy (10) second and Castillian third. Castillian pairs that with genuine class, ranking fourth on CSW, which is what makes his handy settling spot so dangerous in a race this fast.

The verdict

The pressure figure is doing the heavy lifting here. A leader-punishing tempo lifts the closers and puts a genuine question over anything asked to make the running.

What to watch: whether Castillian can hold his handy spot while the speed collapses in front of Loch Eagle and Golden Cross late.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.