Randwick Race 9 Preview: Autumn Glow Headlines The Million

A $1,000,000 sprint at Randwick with a genuine star at the top and a pace shape that could turn the run home into a shootout. Here is how Kingsley Bartholomew reads it.

The race

Race 9 at Randwick jumps at 4:30pm AEST over a sprinter's trip, an 11-horse field on a fine day with the rail in the True position. The quality runs deep, with a swag of Chris Waller-trained runners and a market that has firmed hard around a short-priced favourite. Several of these are dropping sharply back in trip off staying wins, which shapes both the tempo and the way the race is likely to unfold.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Fast, with a pressure reading of 68.69 percent — a genuinely strong, contested speed rather than a soft lead. Kingsley's top pick Autumn Glow (8) maps to lead on a ppir of 1, settling closest to the speed, with Sheza Alibi (14) next best forward on a ppir of 2 from barrier 1. Lindermann (3) and Idle Flyer (11) also roll forward. That pressure matters most for the swoopers: with real tempo up front, the runners getting well back are handed the tempo they need. His second pick Fangirl (10) settles last on a ppir of 11 and gets right back, which is exactly the scenario that suits her.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Autumn Glow (8), rated $1.55 against a $1.75 market this morning and also the Golden Bullet official tip. She is 11 wins from 12, 6 from 7 at Randwick, and drops back to a sprint trip off a 2000m assignment. She maps on the speed, trialled well, and keeps James McDonald aboard. He rates her the best horse in the race with everything in her favour.

His second pick Fangirl (10) is rated $26 against a $26 market this morning — the two agree. She gets back and swoops, and Kingsley calls her the biggest threat to the top pick, loving both Randwick and the trip with the fast speed up front playing to her strengths.

His third pick Aeliana (9) is rated $16 against a $14 market this morning. She steps into elite company off a 2400m win, and while the big drop in trip is the query, the class and ratings hold up with Nash Rawiller aboard.

His fourth pick Gringotts (2) is rated $31 against a $21 market this morning. He was held up when the run never came last start, won his trial, loves this trip and rates strongly, with Ethan Brown taking the ride.

Worth noting where Kingsley takes the market on: Sheza Alibi (14) is rated $6 against a much shorter $3.40 market this morning, and he thinks the market has her too short — up in the weights, wanting further, and needing luck from barrier 1.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Autumn Glow tops it with a CAM of 105.49 (camRank 1), from Gringotts on 102.61 (camRank 2). CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is headed by Ceolwulf (1) on 108.35 (cswRank 1) — but he is resuming, 0 from 6 first-up and maps to settle a long way back on a ppir of 10, so Kingsley prefers others. Autumn Glow is next on CSW with 107.89 (cswRank 2).

Cruising speed, a measure of a horse's natural travelling speed, is topped by Lindermann on 102.7 (cruisingRank 1), though he drops a long way back in trip. Acceleration, the turn of foot on offer, is where the race gets interesting: Fangirl owns the best in the field on 116.36 (accelerationRank 1), with Autumn Glow next on 112.32 (accelerationRank 2). That is the crux of it — the leader has the second-best kick, the swooper has the best, and the fast tempo decides how much they get to use it.

What to watch: whether the Fast tempo brings Fangirl's field-best acceleration into play late, or whether Autumn Glow simply controls it from the speed.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.