Goulburn Race 7 Preview: Cross Tasman Set For A Swoop

A $200,000 sprint over a true rail at Goulburn shapes as a runaway tempo, and the horses that settle back and finish over the top are the ones to be with. Here is how Race 7 maps.

The race

Sixteen go around in Race 7 at Goulburn, jumping 4:15pm AEST on a fine day with the rail in the true position. Chris Waller saddles three, and the weights range from the 61.5kg carried by Travolta (2) up top down to the 54kg minimum shared by a large chunk of the field. This is a genuinely open race on the market, but the way it looks set to be run does a lot of the sorting for you.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure reading of 98.7 per cent — about as hot as the model measures. That matters more than any single runner here. Watson (19) is the only one who maps to lead on ppir, and Ticklebelly (18) is next closest at ppir 5, but a scorching speed and a harder race are both against the frontrunners; neither profiles as the horse you want when the tempo is this fierce. Istolea Merc (17) at ppir 10 sits in the back half and, as an on-pacer, is also fighting the shape.

That leaves the swoopers holding the aces. Cross Tasman (14) settles midfield on ppir 6 with the turn of foot to let down late, and further back sit Just Party (16) at ppir 13 and Declichy Boulevard (5) at ppir 14 — both settle a long way back but arrive running.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Cross Tasman (14), and it is the one the numbers keep returning to. It rates rated $2.60 against a $3.10 market this morning, so he has it as a touch of overs. The trial at Rosehill looked sharp, the fresh record is sound, it gets in well at the weights, and a Very Fast tempo suits a horse that settles back and finishes hard.

His second pick is Cold Brew (13), rated $6 against a $5.00 market. It saluted last start, drops nicely in the weights and is rock-hard fit with five wins from eleven. The one query is that its acceleration is a shade light once the swoopers get rolling.

His third pick is Knobelas (7), rated $12 against a $10.00 market, resuming off a sharp Randwick trial with three wins from nine and coming back sharply in trip but with the class to cope.

His fourth pick is Just Party (16), rated $26 against a $23.00 market — a trial winner getting a weight drop, held up for a run last time, and a settle-back type with a turn of foot helped by the draw. There are no official tips in this race.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating: Travolta leads the field with camRank 1, from Cross Tasman at camRank 2 and Medatsu (9) at camRank 3. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, tells a cleaner story for the favourite — Cross Tasman tops it outright at cswRank 1, with Travolta at cswRank 2 and Cold Brew at cswRank 3.

Cruising speed measures the natural tempo a horse can sustain, and here Ticklebelly leads on cruisingRank 1, from Watson at cruisingRank 2 and Aberlour (11) at cruisingRank 3. Acceleration is the sprint off the corner, and Travolta owns it at accelerationRank 1 — best in the field by a margin — from Medatsu at accelerationRank 2 and Declichy Boulevard at accelerationRank 3. The catch with Travolta is that its top-end kick is undone by a map that has it back at ppir 12 with 61.5kg and a preference for further; Cross Tasman blends accelerationRank 4 with the ratings edge and a better spot in the run.

The market

Declichy Boulevard is well found at a $6.50 market this morning but rates only rated $13, and Kingsley is happy to take it on with a wide, back-of-the-field map. Welcometotheshow (6) and Watson each sit shorter than their rated prices, at a $9.50 and $8.50 market respectively against rated $15 and rated $12.

What to watch: how hard they go early — the hotter this Very Fast tempo runs, the more it hands the race to Cross Tasman and the late-finishers.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.