Pakenham Synthetic Race 9 Preview: Tips & Rated Prices

A fast tempo, a true rail and a field full of hold-up horses. This 2200m contest at Pakenham Synthetic looks tailor-made for the closers, and Kingsley has leaned into that shape hard with his four selections.

The race

Race 9 is a $40,000 event jumping at 4:30pm AEST on a fine day, run over the true entire circuit with a full field of 12. The story here is written in the tempo. The pressure reading sits at 85.01 per cent inside a Fast band, which means the runners drawn to roll forward are the ones most likely to feel the pinch late over this trip. Weight plays its part too, with Sunsets (1) carrying top impost at 61.5kg down to a raft of runners on the 54kg minimum.

The pace picture

The genuine leader is Dragoon (4), the only runner mapping to the front on ppir, a metric where 1 settles closest to the lead. Wolfoffitroystreet (12) sits next in the queue on ppir 6 despite his own high cruising number, and Kingsley flags that the map is stacked against the leader here. Behind them, the tempo does its work: Hot Too Go (8) and Sunsets both map up on the speed, and Kingsley is happy to take on the pair given the pressure up front and their weight rises.

The runners set to relish it all are down the back. Kingsley's top three all carry high ppir figures, meaning they settle a long way off the lead and need the speed to hold up in front of them. In a race rating this fast, that is exactly the plan.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is She's A Con (13), also carrying an Official Tip to back. She holds the best CAM in the field, the metric measuring composite ability, and elite acceleration to match. She maps to get right back off the tempo and swoop, and Kingsley rates her $5 against a $7.00 market this morning, calling her clear value and a strong play.

His second pick Nothingelsematters (11) ran a cracker over this exact trip here last start, only run down late by a lightweight. He gets in well at the weights, draws to get a lovely run from barrier 4 and settles off the speed. Kingsley rates him $8 against a $6.00 market and names him the biggest threat to the tip.

His third pick Urban Outlook (6) is top-rated on CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, and drops into easier grade after hitting the line hard over further at Flemington. He gets a long way back but owns the finish to be swooping late, rated $7 alongside an $8.00 market.

His fourth pick Euphoric (5) holds the best acceleration in the field and is fitter second-up, having run on strongly last start. He maps to get well back and needs it all to fall right, rated $15 against a $12.00 market with early money noted.

The metrics

The numbers back the swooper theme. On CAM (composite ability), She's A Con leads the field, with Euphoric ranked second and Sunsets third. On CSW (class-speed-weight time), Urban Outlook tops the list, ahead of Euphoric and Flash Feeling (2).

Cruising speed, a measure of a horse's sustainable gallop, is headed by Wolfoffitroystreet, with Dragoon second and Hot Too Go third, but note those are the on-pace types the fast tempo works against. Acceleration, the finishing burst, is where the plan comes together: Euphoric ranks first, She's A Con second and Saveadateforme (9) third. Three of the top selections sit near the top of that acceleration board and near the bottom of the cruising board, which is the signature of a race set up for late speed.

The market shortest at release was Hot Too Go at $4.60, a runner Kingsley is happy to oppose given the weight rise and the tempo against the on-pacers.

Watch the fractions early: if Dragoon and the forward brigade go hard, the finish belongs to She's A Con and the closers behind her.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.