Beaumont Race 7 Preview: Tips & Rated Prices, Aug 25

A $45,000 jumping contest over an average tempo, and Kingsley is happy to take on both the market favourite and the runner the market has fallen for late.

The race

Beaumont Race 7 jumps at 5:00pm AEST, a nine-horse field on an overcast day over a true turf track set at +2m off the 400m to the post. There is genuine class near the top of the market and a clear tier below it, and the interest today is that Kingsley's read of the race and this morning's release market pull in different directions on more than one runner.

How it maps

The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 37.27 per cent, so this shapes as a controlled affair rather than a scramble. The runner that settles closest to the lead is Better Late (6), the only horse in the field whose predicted in-run position (ppir, where 1 sits closest to the lead) is 1; Brown Sugar (7) is next at ppir 2 from the fence. Behind them the pattern favours horses that finish over horses that lead: Kingsley's top pick sits back at ppir 5 and his second pick further back again at ppir 6. In an average-tempo race with a light pressure reading, the leaders will not be running on empty, so the closers need the sprint to be sharp.

Kingsley's four

Kingsley's top pick is Heuristic (2), and he says plainly the market is looking the wrong way. Heuristic is rated $4.40 against a $5.00 market this morning, which he reads as overs. Last start the horse got right back, swung wide and bolted home, and on the numbers it rates up to this grade with the second-best turn of foot in the field. From ppir 5 it needs the tempo to hold up, but he is content to be against the favourite here.

That favourite is his second pick, Grinzinger Pod (4), the best-rated runner in the field on the numbers and drawn nicely in barrier 2 with Schofield up. He won well last start making his own luck, and the only knock is the quote: rated $2.80 against a $2.60 market this morning, a shade short for Kingsley, who prefers the value at the top of his list.

His third pick is Cryptonic (1), rated $9 against an $8.00 market this morning. The horse ran second last start and hit the line hard beaten only a length, is suited at the trip and comes in third-up, with the 61.5kg the plain concern. His fourth pick is Brown Sugar (7), rated $5.50 against a $3.90 market this morning; it maps up from the fence, rates the strongest in the field on cruising speed, and hit the line hard last start, but he has it under the odds.

One to note against: Better Late is rated $8.50 against a much shorter $4.40 market this morning. Kingsley rates it a good deal longer than the market and is happy to take it on after it faced the breeze, hit the front and got run down last start.

The numbers

Grinzinger Pod is the standout on the composite metrics. He tops CAM (composite ability, an overall rating) at camRank 1, tops CSW (a class-speed-weight time rating) at cswRank 1, and tops acceleration at accelerationRank 1. Brown Sugar leads on cruising speed (sustained tempo) at cruisingRank 1, with Better Late next at cruisingRank 2.

Heuristic backs up Kingsley's case on the sprint: he is second on CSW and second on acceleration, so the finishing burst is there even though he ranks only eighth on cruising speed. Cryptonic is consistent through the top end, third on CAM, third on CSW and third on acceleration. Brown Sugar is second on CAM behind Grinzinger Pod.

There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips flagged in this race, so it is Kingsley's read carrying the card.

What to watch: whether the average tempo lets the leaders dawdle and blunt the closers, or whether Heuristic's turn of foot from the back gets its chance.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.