Canterbury Race 6 Preview: Ruination Heads A Fast-Run Sprint
Canterbury Race 6 preview with Kingsley's tips, rated prices and pace read on a fast-run 1100m sprint where the market and the ratings disagree.
A fast-run 1100m sprint at Canterbury where the market and Kingsley's rated card pull in different directions, and where the top pick himself carries a warning about value.
The race
Canterbury Race 6 is a $60,000 sprint, jumping at 4:20pm AEST under an overcast sky with the rail out four metres on the entire circuit. Eight go around. The field is headed on weight by Ruination (1) at 61kg down to Donwon (11) and Taxation (12) at 56.5kg, and it is a race Kingsley rates as competitive on the numbers but short on genuine value — a theme that runs through every one of his picks.
No value right now — no runner's Bullet Price is shorter than its live price.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure reading of 67.59 per cent, so this shapes as a genuinely run event. The ppir figure tells you where each runner settles — 1 is closest to the lead — and here it is Oceans One (8) who maps to lead. Just off him sits third pick Miss Trentino (7) on a ppir of 2, with fourth pick Zale (3) handy on a ppir of 3. That is the story of the race: real speed engaged up front on a heavy track, which puts pressure on the leaders and can set the race up for the closers.
And the closers are lurking. Top pick Ruination maps to get back on a ppir of 5, second pick Melanite (5) further back again on 6, and Taxation last of all on a ppir of 8. In a fast-run sprint that pattern is a live threat, provided it is run to suit them.
Kingsley's selections
Kingsley's top pick is Ruination (1), resuming for Michael Freedman after a sharp Randwick trial win and gelded since. He has the class edge and is the best-rated of the picks, but Kingsley is blunt: he is well found, rated $3.6 against a $3.5 market this morning, and there is no real edge at the price. Back to 1100m first-up on a heavy track, he maps to get back.
His second pick is Melanite (5), the horse Kingsley says he would fear most. She won well at Randwick last time and hit the line strongly, McEvoy stays aboard, and she is proven at the trip with two wins from five. Rated $5.5 against a $4.8 market this morning, so again no value on Kingsley's read.
His third pick is Miss Trentino (7), who has won at Canterbury before and is fitter second-up. She maps to sit second behind the leader, but she led and got collared late last start and there is speed engaged this time. Rated $7.5 against a $6.0 market this morning. Kingsley is happy to watch.
His fourth pick is Zale (3), who tops the class-speed-weight ratings and ran second here last start, but at 40 starts the old legs are a concern. Rated $16 against a $12 market this morning.
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
Resuming and loved the trial, won it at Randwick and looked sharp. Gelded since and has the class edge on these. Back to 1100m looks sharp enough first-up on a heavy track and he maps to get back. Best rated of my picks but seems well found in the market. Top pick, but no edge in this race for mine.
Won well at Randwick last time and hit the line strong. McEvoy stays on, proven at the trip with 2 from 5, and maps to settle handy. Second pick and the one I'd fear most, but no value in this race for mine.
Maps to lead and has won here before, fitter now second-up and rates well on the numbers. Led and got collared late last start though, and there's speed engaged. Third pick, happy to watch this one.
Tops the CSW ratings and racing well enough, ran 2nd here last start and maps to sit handy. Old legs at 40 starts though. Fourth pick, nothing here getting me involved.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Melanite tops it with a camRank of 1, from Zale second. CSW blends class, speed and weight into a time rating, and there Zale ranks first, with Miss Trentino second. Cruising speed measures a horse's natural travelling pace, and Miss Trentino leads it on cruisingRank 1, with Zale second. Acceleration measures the turn of foot, and it is Taxation (12) who ranks first — the sharpest sprint in the field on the numbers.
That last point matters. Taxation has early money and J B McDonald aboard, but the market has her shorter than Kingsley does, rated $3.8 against a $2.9 market this morning. She is rank 1 on acceleration with an excuse last time, yet maps to get a long way back on a heavy track and needs the race run to suit. Kingsley is happy to take her on at the price.
The verdict
The shape favours the closers, but Kingsley's read is that the market has the top of the market too tight to play. Ruination has the class edge without the price, Melanite is the one to fear, and Taxation is the standout to oppose on value.
What to watch: whether the fast tempo up front holds up, and whether the closers — Ruination, Melanite and Taxation — get the run of a genuinely pressured sprint on a heavy track.
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