Seymour Race 6 Preview: Tempo Sets Up Racey Casey
Seymour Race 6 tips, rated prices and the pace read: a slow tempo up front hands the on-pace runners the edge over the field's backmarkers.
A slow-tempo jumping race at Seymour where the map does the heavy lifting: the runners who settle close look to hold the whip hand over a field packed with late speed that may not get the chance to use it.
The race
Seymour Race 6 goes at 3:30pm AEST for $35,000, an eight-horse field on a Fine day with the rail out four metres for the entire circuit. It is a compact, competitive heat with several last-start winners and two horses resuming, and Kingsley's read is that this one is decided as much by where they sit as by raw ability.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Slow with a pressure figure of 29.42 per cent, meaning there is little heat expected up front. That shape rewards on-pace runners and works against anything that gets too far back, because a slow lead makes ground hard to claw in the run home.
Tapo (7) is the runner who maps to lead, the only horse in the field with a ppir of 1. Just behind, Lathlain (10) settles closest of the genuine chances on a ppir of 2, with Antonito (2) next on 3 and Castellito (9) on 4. The concern sits with the field's strongest finishers: Zourain (3) maps to get right back on a ppir of 6, and Allinthetiming (6) is the deepest of all on 8. Both bring serious late speed, but a slow tempo is not what a backmarker wants.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Racey Casey (13), and the map is the reason. He rolls forward to sit just off the speed on a ppir of 7 correction — his running style has him poised, and the slow tempo up front is exactly what he wants. He is well in at the weights on 54, fitter for three runs back, and rates right up to the best in the race. Kingsley has him rated $7 against a $9.00 market this morning, so he reads as over the odds. This is also the official Golden Bullet in the race.
His second pick Zourain (3) rates strongly on the numbers and drops into an easier assignment with good acceleration to call on, but the catch is clear: he maps to get right back off a ppir of 6 into a slow-run race. Kingsley rates him $5 against a $6.00 market this morning.
His third pick Allinthetiming (6) resumes with plenty of late speed, and Egan is a strong booking, but like Zourain the slow tempo does not suit getting back this far. He rates $7.50, level with a $7.50 market this morning. His fourth pick Lathlain (10) resumes with a perfect fresh record — two from two first-up and two from two at the track — and maps on-pace from barrier one. The only query is trip. Kingsley rates her $5 against a $4.50 market this morning.
Among those he is happy to take on, Castellito (9) rates $6 against a much shorter $3.40 market this morning, second-up after a return win with a price he says gives you nothing, while Bardia's Dream (12) rates $8 against a $4.60 market this morning despite the Lane booking, mapping to settle back off a ppir of 5.
Maps to roll forward and sit just off the speed, and the slow tempo up front is exactly what he wants. Well in at the weights, fitter for 3 runs back and rates right up to the best of these. Over the odds too. A Golden Bullet and a MAX BET......Lets Go !!
Rates strongly on the numbers and drops into an easier race, with good acceleration to call on. The catch is he maps to get right back and the tempo looks slow up front, not what a backmarker wants. Best of the rest for mine. Second pick.
Resuming with plenty of late speed in his favour, but like the other backmarker the slow tempo doesn't suit getting back this far. Egan's a strong booking and he was caught three wide with no cover last start. Third pick.
Resuming and the fresh record is perfect, 2 from 2 first-up and 2 from 2 at the track. Best acceleration in the field and trialled nicely leading in. Only query is she may want a touch further, but she maps on-pace and rates right up to these. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
Lathlain leads the ability figures. She tops CAM — the composite ability rating — with a camRank of 1 at 91.78, and she tops CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — with a cswRank of 1 at 87.05. She also owns the best acceleration in the field, an accelerationRank of 1 at 102.73, the standout burst in the race.
Behind her, Allinthetiming is second on both CAM and CSW (camRank and cswRank of 2) and second for acceleration. Zourain is third on CAM and CSW and third for acceleration. Racey Casey rates fourth on both CAM and CSW and, importantly for a forward runner, sits second for cruising speed — the sustainable-gallop measure — with a cruisingRank of 2 at 85.2. Tapo, the horse that maps to lead, tops cruising speed on a cruisingRank of 1 at 86.7, but rates last on CAM, CSW and acceleration.
The tension in this race is plain in the numbers: the horses with the best finishing burst are the ones who map furthest back into a tempo that will not help them.
What to watch: whether the slow tempo up front lets Racey Casey settle just off the speed and pounce, or whether Lathlain's on-pace map and best-in-field acceleration prove too sharp resuming.
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