Cairns Race 7 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices, Very Fast Tempo
Cairns Race 7 preview: a Very Fast tempo sets up the swoopers. Kingsley's top four, rated prices and the metrics that separate this $100,000 field.
A $100,000 sprint on a fine day and a True Entire Course rail, Cairns Race 7 shapes as a genuine speed duel that could hand the race to the closers. Fourteen line up at 4:46pm AEST.
The race
This is a strong, deep field on turf, and the story is written in the tempo. The pressure reading is 86.69 per cent inside a Very Fast tempo band — a hot, honest race up front that rewards patience. That single number frames every selection below: the horses that settle off the speed are the ones set up to profit, and the on-pace runners have work to do to hold it together.
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The pace picture
Free Carry (8) is the one who maps to lead, with the lowest predicted in-running position in the field, and he rolls forward from barrier 3. The catch is obvious: with the tempo this fast, controlling it out in front is a hard ask. Demon Award (2) settles next closest and Spirit Meister (10) is also on the speed, but that same hot pace works against them.
Contrast that with the swoopers. Speed Legend (1) is set to get a long way back, and Our Missile (16) settles deep too — precisely the profile a Very Fast tempo flatters. The shape suits the late brigade and asks questions of everything drawn to be forward.
Kingsley's selections
Kingsley's top pick is Tambo's Justice (5). He is in terrific form, saluted last start and rates right up to this grade, with barrier 4 drawing him for a lovely run. At only 17 starts he is still on the up, and the class edge is there. Kingsley rates him $3.40 against a $3.20 market this morning — near enough to square, and he calls the market about right.
His second pick, Our Missile (16), is the biggest threat. This is the horse with the best composite ability rating in the race and elite acceleration, coming off a win, and three wins from four at the trip. The hot speed up front sets his late swoop up perfectly. Kingsley makes him rated $5.50 against a $7.00 market this morning — a touch of overs on his read.
His third pick is Free Carry (8), the likely leader, back in trip off a good run with the blinkers coming off. The reservation is the tempo making that lead hard to hold. Kingsley has him rated $15 against a $13 market this morning.
His fourth pick, Speed Legend (1), is the best-rated on class-speed-weight time and loves this track with five wins from nine here. He gets well back, but the hot speed should let him swoop late. He is a 10-year-old carrying top weight with winkers going on, yet Kingsley calls the quote a touch of overs — rated $14 against a $19 market this morning.
One to take on: Odegaard (13) has attracted early money and is short at a $5.00 market this morning, but Kingsley has him rated $7 and reads him as crying out for further, dropping sharply in trip and mapping to settle well back.
In terrific form, saluted last start and rates right up to these. Drawn to get a lovely run in barrier 4 and the class edge is there. Only 17 starts and still on the up. Market's got him about right but he's the top pick.
Won last start and has the best CAM in the field with elite acceleration. The hot speed up front sets this up perfectly to swoop late, and there's a bit of overs about the quote. 3 wins from 4 at the trip. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
Rolls forward and looks the leader, comes back in trip off a good run and the blinkers come off. The hot speed makes it tough to control out front, but he's the third pick.
Best rated in the field and loves this track with 5 wins from 9 here. Gets a long way back but the hot speed up front should let him swoop late. 10yo and top weight now, winkers go on, but the price is a touch of overs. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is Kingsley's composite ability rating, and Our Missile tops the field on it (camRank 1), with Acrophobic (12) next (camRank 2) and the top pick Tambo's Justice third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is led by Speed Legend (cswRank 1), ahead of Demon Award (cswRank 2) and Tambo's Justice (cswRank 3).
Cruising speed — how fast a horse can travel comfortably — is headed by Free Carry (cruisingRank 1), fitting for the likely leader, with Demon Award second and Tambo's Justice third. Acceleration, the sharpness of the turn of foot, is where the swoopers shine: Acrophobic ranks best (accelerationRank 1) at 111.84, with Our Missile right behind (accelerationRank 2) at 111.171 and Odegaard third. That top pair of accelerators, meeting a Very Fast tempo, is the crux of the race.
No official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tip is attached to this race.
What to watch: whether Free Carry can hold together in front, because if he can't, the tempo tips this race straight into the laps of Tambo's Justice and Our Missile.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.