Caulfield Race 8 Preview: Cosmic Crusader Tops The Ratings

A $750,000 feature at Caulfield brings twelve together over a trip that sorts the specialists from the pretenders. This is a race about track record and finishing speed, and Kingsley has strong opinions on where the value sits.

The race

Caulfield Race 8 jumps at 4:10pm AEST on an overcast afternoon, with the rail out four metres for the entire circuit. It is a genuine test: several of these are proven at the track, but the class lift catches out a couple of last-start winners who were doing their best work over further.

The standfirst names are here. Mr Brightside (1) carries the topweight of 59kg alongside a cluster of runners at the same mark, and the field is littered with Caulfield form lines that matter more than usual around this circuit.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Average with a pressure reading of 60.12 percent, so this is a solidly run affair without being a genuine speed war. Treasurethe Moment (12) maps to lead on a ppir of 1, with Mr Brightside settling closest to her on a ppir of 2 from barrier 9. Beiwacht (10) is next forward on a ppir of 3 and brings natural early speed.

The shape hurts the swoopers. Angel Capital (5) maps back on a ppir of 10, Cosmic Crusader (7) sits on a ppir of 9, and Buckaroo (4) is deep on a ppir of 8. In an average tempo those horses need the leaders to over-race or the sprint home to be sharp enough for their finishing kick to land.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Cosmic Crusader (7). The horse won impressively at Caulfield last start, tops the CAM ratings, and sits second in the field on acceleration, and Kingsley rates him $4 against a $5.00 market this morning. Pike stays aboard, the trip suits, and he is one of two Official Tips in the race with a Back.

His second pick Jimmysstar (2) loves the track with five wins from seven here and earns a big forgive from a wide-run last start behind a stablemate. Kingsley rates him $3.80 against a $4.20 market this morning, and he is the other Official Tip carrying a Back.

His third pick Angel Capital (5) rates strongly on CSW and had a genuine excuse last time, checked off heels before charging home into third. Second-up and fitter, he is rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning.

His fourth pick is Mr Brightside (1), the best-rated in the field on CSW and a genuine Caulfield specialist with six wins from twelve here. Resuming at nine, he is rated $15 against a $12.00 market this morning, and Kingsley flags he would probably want a touch further first-up over this trip.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Cosmic Crusader tops it at a camRank of 1, with Mr Brightside second on camRank 2 and Treasurethe Moment third on camRank 3. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and here Mr Brightside is best on cswRank 1, Angel Capital second on cswRank 2, and Jimmysstar third on cswRank 3.

Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold, and Beiwacht is the standout with a cruisingRank of 1 at 103.9, ahead of Treasurethe Moment on cruisingRank 2 and Mr Brightside on cruisingRank 3. Acceleration measures the burst off the bridle, and Buckaroo owns the best in the field on accelerationRank 1, with Cosmic Crusader second on accelerationRank 2 and Mr Brightside third on accelerationRank 3.

Buckaroo is the cautionary tale in the numbers: the best acceleration in the race, but he maps a long way back on a ppir of 8 and it has been 707 days without a win. Kingsley has others ahead of him.

What to watch

Beiwacht has been backed into a $6.50 market this morning against a rated $11, and Kingsley is happy to take him on resuming, 0 from 3 first-up into stronger company.

Watch whether the average tempo lets Treasurethe Moment control it up front, or whether the back-half finishers get the sprint they need to run over the top.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.