Wyong Race 6 Preview: Ouragan Rated The One To Beat

Kingsley's Race Of The Day lands at Wyong, where an eight-strong turf field jumps at 3:40pm over conditions that should let the runners settle rather than sprint from end to end.

The Race

This is Wyong Race 6, a $45,000 event over the turf with the rail out three metres on the entire circuit and fine weather overhead. Eight go around. The betting shapes up as a genuine contest, with several runners bunched tight in the market released this morning and Kingsley's rated card telling a slightly different story to the punters' early money.

The Pace Picture

The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 45.22 per cent, so this is not a race that projects to fall apart up front. On the pace map, Serinda (5) is the runner who settles closest to the lead, drawing well in barrier 3 and mapping to be handy. Hard Jakka (10) is the next-forward runner from barrier 5, with Wealthy Investor (9) also rolling forward. That leaves the strong finishers to make ground: Powder Man (1) maps to get right back from the wide gate, and Smiling Prophet (7) settles back from midfield despite drawing the inside.

With the tempo only average and no runaway leader projected, the shape favours horses that can quicken late over those relying on a hot speed to bring them into it.

Kingsley's Selections

His top pick is Ouragan (8), rated $4.80 against a $5.00 market this morning, so a touch of value at the quote. Ouragan tops the field on CSW — Kingsley's class-speed-weight time rating — is racing in good form, took a narrow late lead before placing again last time out and settles handy with a clear class edge over these.

His second pick is Powder Man (1), rated $6.50 against a $7.00 market, so a shade over the odds. He ran on strongly from the back last start and maps to get right back again, but owns strong late acceleration, is fit deep into his prep and the 1350m sits bang on his mark.

His third pick is Smiling Prophet (7), rated $6.00 against a $5.00 market. He hit the line hard last time, draws to get a lovely run from barrier 1, has a good record at Wyong and runs on strongly from midfield.

His fourth pick is Serinda (5), rated $8.00 against a much shorter $5.50 market. She missed the start last time and got no favours three-wide under pressure — worth forgiving — and now settles handy from the good gate into a nicer setup.

The Metrics

Ouragan is the standout on CSW, ranked best in the field. On CAM — the composite ability rating — the top-ranked runner is the outsider In Iso (12), with Powder Man ranked second and Smiling Prophet third among the genuine chances.

Acceleration measures late quickening, and here In Iso ranks best, with Powder Man ranked second and Smiling Prophet third — the two live finishers backing up their pace-map profiles with the numbers. Cruising speed measures a horse's sustainable travelling pace, and Hard Jakka ranks best on that figure, with Wealthy Investor second.

The warning signs sit with the well-backed pair. Alamagan (6) jumps up as favourite off a $5.00 market, yet ranks last in the field on both acceleration and CAM, with first-time winkers going on. Hard Jakka is rated $14 against a $7.50 market despite ranking seventh on CSW, and found nothing when tested last start. Kingsley is happy to take on both at those quotes.

The Verdict

The race sets up for a strong finisher off an average tempo, and Kingsley's rated card leans away from the two shortest in the market this morning toward class and late speed. Ouragan carries the class edge and rates the one to beat, with Powder Man and Smiling Prophet the finishers to bring into it.

What to watch: whether the average tempo lets Powder Man's late acceleration reach Ouragan from the back.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.