Warwick Farm Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips & Pace

A nine-horse sprint over $60,000, run into a fast tempo and heavy pressure. The shape decides this one, and the market and the rated prices are not reading it the same way.

The race

Warwick Farm Race 6 jumps at 4:30pm AEST on a fine day, with the rail out three metres on the entire circuit. Nine go around and the standout feature is the pace: this is a genuinely fast race, and how each runner is positioned when the sting comes off is the whole story. Two of the more fancied runners in the market are ones Kingsley wants to take on rather than back, purely on that speed picture.

The pace picture

The tempo band is Fast and the pressure reading is 81.75 percent, which is high — this is a race that will be run at a genuine clip with several wanting to roll forward. Reading ppir, which measures how close to the lead a runner settles (1 is closest), Monte Veebee (2) maps to lead. Right behind him Gus The Great (6) sits second and Kingsley's top pick Anthropoid (13) third, so there is real speed engaged early.

That is exactly why the swoopers are dangerous. Kingsley's second pick Cavalry (3) has a ppir of 9, meaning he gets right back off the good draw, and with genuine speed on up front he is the one primed to arrive late. His third pick Sociable (11) maps midfield on a ppir of 7 and gets the pace to run at. Meanwhile Monte Veebee and Gus The Great are both up on the speed in a race full of tempo, which is the case for opposing both despite their form.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Anthropoid (13), also an Official Tip with a Back call. He bolted in by five lengths last start and gets in on just 54.5kg, rolls forward and dictates, with Zac Lloyd staying aboard. Kingsley rates him $6.50 against a $7.50 market this morning.

His second pick and the biggest threat is Cavalry (3), the best-rated runner in the field. He is the late swooper off the back, and Kingsley rates him $5.50 against a shorter $4.60 market this morning. His third pick Sociable (11) ran second here over this trip last start, teams Maher with Clark, and is rated $8.50 with a touch of value against the $9.00 market. His fourth pick is the roughie Without Peer (5), resuming for Maher, drawn nicely with the ear muffs going on for the first time — rated $21 in line with a $21 market, but Kingsley sees value at the quote.

Worth stating plainly where he is against the market: Gus The Great is rated $6.00 but was a $3.50 market this morning, which Kingsley calls way too short, and Extra Heights (7) is rated $51 against a $17 market this morning — a big gap that says he wants no part of it.

The metrics

CAM is composite ability, the overall rating. Monte Veebee ranks first on CAM, with Cavalry second and Clancy (4) third. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and here Cavalry ranks first, Monte Veebee second and Clancy third.

Cruising speed measures a horse's sustainable tempo, and Anthropoid ranks first on that, ahead of Monte Veebee. Acceleration is the turn of foot, and this is where Cavalry separates himself — he ranks first, and the comment describes it as best by a street, with Clancy second. That combination of top CSW and top acceleration off a back-of-the-field map is precisely what makes Cavalry the danger in a fast-run race. Note the flip side on Anthropoid, who leads on cruising speed but ranks last on acceleration — the reason he needs to be rolling forward and dictating rather than sprinting from behind.

What to watch

Watch whether the early speed of Monte Veebee and Gus The Great burns each other off — if it does, Cavalry's acceleration from last is the play, but Anthropoid holding the front on 54.5kg is the one that beats them all.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.