Warrnambool Race 6 Preview: Cinnamon Kiss Ticks Boxes
Warrnambool Race 6 tips, pace read and rated prices: why Cinnamon Kiss maps to swoop, plus Kingsley's top four and the market disagreements.
A $35,000 assignment over the sprint trip at Warrnambool, jumping 4:00pm AEST on an overcast afternoon with the rail out four metres the entire circuit. Ten runners, an average tempo and a genuine query over who controls it.
The race
This is a competitive middle-grade sprint where class, fitness and draw all pull in different directions. The field spreads from proven track winners down to resumers carrying big weights out of wide gates. Ti Tree Lad (1) shoulders 61.5kg from barrier 10 first-up and maps to get well back, while the featherweight of the race is Melissa Kate (11) at 54kg. The story sits with a small group who combine form, a soft draw and a shape that lets them finish over the top.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads average with a pressure figure of 60.69 per cent, so this shapes as a solid rather than frantic gallop. Aqua Storm (5) is the one that maps to lead on ppir, drawn wide in nine but expected to find the front. Fast 'n' Inzaine (9) settles just off from barrier one, and Kingsley's third pick Artistic Genius (3) is next in the running order, settling handy from gate four. That leaves the two market principals to be produced late: the top pick settles midfield and the second pick rolls forward closer to the speed. With an even tempo up front, a horse with a strong turn of foot from just off the pace holds the whip hand.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Cinnamon Kiss (4), a last-start track winner in cracking form now stepping up to 1200m from a soft draw in two. She settles midfield and owns the second-best acceleration in the field, the tool that matters most into this shape. Kingsley rates her $2.40 against a $2.15 market this morning, so he has her a touch longer than the market but still on top.
His second pick Empress Rossa (6) is the forward threat. Lightly raced and a five-length winner last start, she rolls forward to lead and tops the field on cruising speed at an ideal trip. He rates her $4 against a $3.40 market this morning.
His third pick Artistic Genius (3) was better than the bare result when wide with cover last time and holds a class edge from a handy settling spot. Kingsley rates him $9.50 against a $9 market, near enough to agreement, and notes early money has arrived.
His fourth pick Melissa Kate (11) is a 10-year-old who ran a cracker last start and gets a nice weight drop, backing up quickly and settling on pace from a good gate. He rates her $31 against a $27 market this morning.
The one he takes on is Fast 'n' Inzaine (9): the market had him a $6 at release, but Kingsley rates him $12, calling him too short after a beaten-favourite run and placing him below the top pair. There are no official tips in this race.
Won well at the track last start and racing in cracking form. Up to 1200m from a soft draw in 2, settles midfield with the 2nd-best acceleration in the field to swoop. Ticks every box. Hard to beat. Top pick.
Lightly raced and bolted in by 5 lengths last start. Rolls forward to lead, tops the field on cruising and gets to an ideal trip. Genuine threat. Second pick.
Wide with cover last start and battled away, better than the bare result. Fitter 3 runs back and has a class edge on these, settles handy. Early money there too. Third pick.
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CAM is the composite ability rating, and Aqua Storm leads it on camRank, ahead of Fast 'n' Inzaine in second and the top pick Cinnamon Kiss third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is topped by Imminent Storm (10), though his comment flags he wants further and maps a long way back; Fast 'n' Inzaine is second on that measure and Artistic Genius third. On cruising speed, the sustainable travelling gear, Empress Rossa ranks first, with Fast 'n' Inzaine second. Acceleration, the raw turn of foot, belongs to Aqua Storm on top, with Cinnamon Kiss the clear second — the reason she looms as the best-placed finisher given where she settles.
The market at release framed Cinnamon Kiss the $2.15 favourite ahead of Empress Rossa at $3.40 and Fast 'n' Inzaine at $6, the last of which Kingsley is happy to oppose.
What to watch: whether Cinnamon Kiss gets the midfield cover to unleash that second-ranked acceleration, or Empress Rossa can dictate her own tempo from the front.
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