Wyong Race 6 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices & The Pace Story
Wyong Race 6 preview: a crawling tempo, Kingsley's top pick, official TKZ tip and rated prices against this morning's market. Fully rated on The King Zone.
A $250,000 feature over a seven-horse field where the tempo tells the story. On a very slow speed, where you sit is everything, and one runner is set up to steal it.
The race
Wyong Race 6 jumps at 3:55pm AEST on a fine day, a true rail and a turf surface. Seven line up for $250,000, and the shape is the first thing to read: the tempo band is Very Slow with a pressure reading of just 9.24 percent, a genuine crawl. In a race like this, the runners who settle close to the speed get all the favours and the closers are left needing a collapse that may never come.
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The pace picture
Eliyass (1) rolls forward and is the only runner mapping to the lead, with a ppir of 1, which means he settles closest to the speed. On a tempo this slow that hands him a soft, uncontested time out in front, and that is the clear danger. Age Of Sail (4) maps next closest on a ppir of 2, then Elliptical (5) at 3 and Anythink Goes (6) at 4, all handy enough to be in the finish.
The worry sits with the favourite. Matusalem (2) has the worst settling position in the field on a ppir of 7, dropping right out the back. His acceleration is genuinely elite, but a turn of foot counts for little when the speed in front never collapses. Steel Blaze (8) is the other backmarker on a ppir of 6.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Bella Montagna (3), rated $4.40 against a $4.80 market this morning, so Kingsley has her firmer than the release quote. She maps to settle handy on a ppir of 5 and owns the best acceleration in the field, exactly the profile you want when the pace crawls and the finish becomes a sprint. She resumes but is fit off her trials, and this trip suits. She is also the Official TKZ Tip in the race.
His second pick is Elliptical (5), rated $6.00 against a $6.50 market this morning. He rates right up to these on the numbers, the Waller yard has him primed and the blinkers stay on, though from a midfield map he needs the race to fall his way in a slow tempo.
His third pick is Eliyass (1), rated $4.80 against a $3.50 market this morning, so Kingsley has him a good deal longer than the market. He is the pace danger who gets the soft lead, Rawiller is a strong booking and he steps up from 1800m off a win, but it is tight at the top of these ratings.
His fourth pick is Anythink Goes (6), rated $11.00 against an $8.00 market this morning. He gets a big weight drop after hitting the line here last time and Zac Lloyd is a quality get, but 52 starts deep this is a harder assignment.
Best acceleration in the field and maps to settle handy, exactly where you want to be with the pace set to crawl and the finish to sprint clear late. Resuming but fit from her trials and this trip suits. Clear value at the quote and an Official TKZ Tip.
Rates right up to these on the numbers and the Waller yard has him primed, blinkers stay on. Maps midfield so he'll want the race to fall right in a slow tempo, but he's a chance on ability. Second pick.
Rolls forward and leads on a slow tempo, so he gets a soft time of it out in front, which is the danger here. Rawiller's a strong booking and he steps up from 1800m off a win. Rates right there on the numbers but it's tight up top. Third pick.
Big weight drop after hitting the line at this track last time and Lloyd's a quality get. On-pacer that maps handy, but he's had 52 starts and this is a harder assignment. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Bella Montagna tops the field on it with a camRank of 1, ahead of Age Of Sail at 2 and Matusalem at 3. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, points to Eliyass, who ranks best with a cswRank of 1, with Elliptical next on 2 and Matusalem on 3. Cruising speed, a runner's sustainable travelling gear, again favours Eliyass with a cruisingRank of 1, then Age Of Sail on 2 and Bella Montagna on 3. Acceleration, the finishing burst, is led by Bella Montagna with an accelerationRank of 1, with Matusalem right behind on 2 and Age Of Sail on 3.
The read is clear: Eliyass owns the sustained-speed numbers and Bella Montagna owns the finishing kick and the overall ability figure. Matusalem has the second-best burst in the field, but his settling position undercuts it.
What to watch: whether Eliyass gets the soft, uncontested lead, because if he does, Bella Montagna's late burst has to reel him in.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.