Randwick Race 8 Preview: The King Zone Tips & Rated Prices
Randwick Race 8 preview: a very fast 1000m for a million dollars. Kingsley's top four, rated prices and the pace map that shapes the finish.
A million-dollar sprint over 1000m at Randwick, run on a fine day with the rail out three metres the entire course. Twelve line up, and the pace shape is the whole story.
The race
This is a straight-out speed test, and the tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure figure of 99.03 per cent — as hot as it gets. That matters enormously, because when the leaders go hard early over the shortest of trips, the horses ridden closer to the speed can be swallowed late while the swoopers arrive over the top. Read the pace map before the prices here.
Today's featured race is free in full — one email, no card.
The pace picture
Only one runner maps to lead: Steady Ready (10), whose ppir of 1 puts him closest to the front. He drew barrier 9 and will roll forward, but he is doing it under real pressure with the tempo this fierce. Way To The Stars (6) and Mal Coupe (12) sit next best forward on ppir, then Wanaruah (9).
The contrast is at the other end. Kingsley's second pick Headwall (1) maps to settle last of all on a ppir of 12, with Tempted (4) on 11 and Beadman (3) on 10 also right out the back. In a normal-tempo 1000m that is a concern; with speed this hot up front it becomes an advantage, and the horses flying home late are the ones to respect.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Roselyn's Star (5), rated $6 against an $8.00 market this morning, so Kingsley has him shorter than the market does. He settles handy just off the speed on a ppir of 7, backs up second-up off a trial he saluted in, and from that position gets every chance to be in the finish rather than relying on the swoop. He is also the sole Official Tip in the race, flagged as a Back.
His second pick and the horse he calls the biggest danger is Headwall (1), rated $3.80 against a $4.40 market this morning. He won this race last year, resumes off a trial Kingsley liked, and maps to charge home from the back into a wall of tiring leaders.
His third pick is Marhoona (2), rated $11 against a $10.00 market this morning, resuming with a good fresh record and drawn to get a soft run from barrier 4. His fourth pick is Steady Ready (10), rated $26 against a $31.00 market this morning — a touch of overs on Kingsley's read — and the one who will take catching if he can dictate up front.
Worth noting where he is happy to oppose: Tempted (4) is rated $2.80 against a $1.85 market this morning, and Kingsley will not have her at that quote, arguing she maps well back and wants more ground.
Won like a nice horse last start and backs up second-up off a cracking trial, saluted in it and I loved the way he went about it. Settles handy just off the speed and gets every chance to be right in the finish. Looks a strong play and an Official Tip.
Resuming off a long spell but he's a proven fresh horse and I loved the trial. Best acceleration in the field by a street, and last year's winner of this. Maps to get well back but with hot speed on up front over the 1000m he'll be flying home late. Second pick and the biggest danger to the top pick.
Resuming with a good fresh record and drawn to get a lovely run in barrier 4. Trialled well leading in. Rates a notch below the top pair but has upside. Third pick.
Maps to lead and won his trial in good order, loves the trip. Into a stronger race but he'll roll forward and take catching up front. Fourth pick, and a touch of overs in the market.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is composite ability, the overall rating of a horse's quality. Headwall tops the field on CAM (camRank 1), with Beadman (camRank 2) and Marhoona (camRank 3) next.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating. Here the order flips: Tempted leads it (cswRank 1) ahead of Headwall (cswRank 2) and Marhoona (cswRank 3).
Cruising speed measures how fast a horse travels in its comfort zone, and it leans to the on-pace types — Steady Ready is best (cruisingRank 1), then Mal Coupe (cruisingRank 2) and Roselyn's Star (cruisingRank 3).
Acceleration is the turn of foot to quicken, and this is where the race tilts. Headwall owns the best acceleration in the field (accelerationRank 1) — Kingsley says by a street — with Beadman (accelerationRank 2) and Tempted (accelerationRank 3) behind. That single figure is why the back-markers are dangerous into a collapsing tempo.
The verdict
The read is clean: a Very Fast tempo softens the leaders and hands the finish to the accelerators. Roselyn's Star from just off it, Headwall arriving late, and value in both against the market.
What to watch: whether Steady Ready can steal a soft enough lead to hold off Headwall's late burst up the straight.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.