Moree Race 7 Preview, Tips & Rated Prices: Fast-Pace Puzzle

A fast-run 13-horse contest on a true rail, and the tempo picture is doing plenty of the heavy lifting. Here is how Kingsley reads Moree's Race 7.

The race

Moree's Race 7 jumps at 4:15pm AEST for $55,000, thirteen runners, fine weather and the rail in the true position. Voracious (1) tops the weights at 63.5kg and goes up in the grade again, while most of the chances sit down around the 55kg mark. It shapes as a class-versus-draw puzzle: the runners with the ratings edge have work to do from wide gates or from off the speed, and the ones drawn to roll forward have questions over the trip and the tempo.

The pace

The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 68.69 per cent, so this is a genuinely strong-run race rather than a soft lead. Jacenza (7) is the one that maps to lead on ppir, but the comments flag it as wanting further and outclassed. Behind it, Hibiki Harmony (6) and Hollywood Gold (17) both want to roll forward on low ppir readings, and both look caught out by the shape — Hibiki Harmony wants further on the ratings and Hollywood Gold gave ground when leading last time. That pressure up front is the story: it sets the race up for the class runners settling off the speed to run over the top.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Don Pedro (12), rated $5.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, so Kingsley has him a shade over the odds. He knuckled at the start last time and still hit the line, drops in the weights and backs up in good order. He is also the sole Official Tip in the race, carrying a Back.

His second pick Awaygoesthebunny (10) is rated $5.50 against a $6.00 market and shapes as the biggest threat to the top pick. Drops to an easier race for the class edge, draws the fence to save ground and gets back — but that forward pressure is exactly what suits him. His third pick Pensativa (9) is rated $12 against a $9.00 market, so Kingsley is a touch cautious here on price; she resumes off a break with one Muswellbrook trial, hit the line hard when last seen and settles midfield. His fourth pick Shamedy (5) is rated $31 against a $20 market — clearly under the odds for Kingsley — and the query is obvious from barrier 13, though she has six wins from fifteen at the trip.

The metrics

CSW is Kingsley's class-speed-weight time rating, and it points straight at the top pick: Don Pedro ranks best in the field, with Awaygoesthebunny ranked second and Voracious third. That is the class spine of the race. CAM, the composite ability rating, tells a different tale up top — Shamedy ranks first there, Don Pedro second and Macleay (18) third, though the comments temper the outliers.

On acceleration, the raw turn-of-foot measure, Shamedy is best in the field by a margin at 103.055, with Don Pedro ranked second and Awaygoesthebunny third — so three of Kingsley's four selections carry the sharpest finishing speed. Cruising speed, the sustainable-tempo figure, favours the forward brigade the pace looks to compromise: Hibiki Harmony ranks best, Hollywood Gold second and Live To Rise (14) third.

Where the market sits

The standout price disagreement is the top pick: rated $5.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, with a class-speed-weight edge and the Official Tip behind him. Awaygoesthebunny sits close on both readings, rated $5.50 against a $6.00 market. Concoction (15) draws the market's interest at a $6.00 market despite resuming without a trial and mapping to get well back, and Kingsley is not convinced there. Live To Rise is rated $21 against a $10 market, another one he has well under the quote.

What to watch: whether the fast tempo brings Don Pedro and Awaygoesthebunny into it late while the front-runners feel the pressure.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.