Dubbo Race 6 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices & Pace Read
Dubbo Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices versus the market, the pace map and the CAM and CSW standouts in a 13-horse field.
A 13-horse assignment at Dubbo on a fine track, run on the +3m rail into the home turn. The tempo reads Average with pressure at 35.02 per cent, and that shape is the whole story here.
The race and the shape
Race 6 at Dubbo carries $27,000 and jumps at 4:40pm AEST over fine going, the rail out three metres from the 1000m to the 400m and true the rest of the way. Thirteen line up, and with pressure at just 35.02 per cent inside an Average tempo band, this is not a race that figures to fall apart up front. That matters, because the runners who need a genuine tempo to close into may not get one.
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Pace picture
ppir measures where a runner settles, with 1 being closest to the lead. No More Romance (11) has a ppir of 1 and maps to lead, though its best cruising speed in the field — cruisingRank 1, cruising being sustainable galloping speed — sits alongside a two-year winless run. Kingsley's third pick Major Lightning (6) maps handy at ppir 2 from a wide gate, and Minister Garrett (14) is next forward at ppir 3.
The firmer read is what happens behind them. His top pick Lone Star Dream (5) settles midfield at ppir 4. His second pick It Is To Be (2) is right at the tail with a ppir of 13, and stablemate-of-fancy Questionable (7) is not far off it at ppir 12. In a moderately run race, the closers give up ground they must then find late.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Lone Star Dream (5), rated $4.60 against a $3.90 market this morning. He concedes the price offers no real edge, but rates it on top regardless: it is the best-rated runner in the field, hit the line hard when just grabbed last start, and adds a cross-over noseband for the first time. It settles midfield with a finishing burst to be sighted.
His second pick It Is To Be (2), rated $9 against a $7.50 market, owns the best acceleration in the field and three wins from four over this kind of ground. It missed the kick and was shuffled wide last time, and from the back it needs its burst to swoop.
His third pick Major Lightning (6) is rated $9.50 against a shorter $12 market — a touch of value on his read despite the awkward gate 13. It maps handy and posted a peak rating last start doing plenty of work wide.
His fourth pick Godwits (1) is rated $10 against a $9 market, saluting at Mendooran only two days ago and backing up quickly. Top weight at 62.5kg is the query, but it is track-trained into an ideal trip from a good gate.
He takes on two the market likes. Heapy's Legacy (3), rated $5 against a $3.90 market, is drawn wide and maps well back at ppir 8. Questionable (7), rated $5 against a $4 market, steps into a harder race and rates below his top few.
Best rated in the field and hit the line hard last start when just grabbed late. Cross-over noseband goes on for the 1st time. Settles midfield with the finishing speed to be sighted. Top pick, market's got it about right so no big edge, but it's the one I rate on top.
Best acceleration in the field and rock solid at the trip, 3 wins from 4 over this sort of ground. Missed the kick and got shuffled wide last start, no wonder it couldn't reel them in on the heavy. Gets back but has the burst to be swooping late. Second pick.
Second-up and maps to be handy. Peak rating last start doing plenty of work out wide. The 13 draw is the worry but there's a touch of value at the quote. Third pick.
Saluted well at Mendooran only 2 days ago and backs up quick. Trained at the track and gets to an ideal trip from a good gate. The top weight is the query but there's a bit of value about it. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CAM, the composite ability figure, is topped by It Is To Be at camRank 1, with Lone Star Dream at camRank 2 and Questionable at camRank 3. On CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — Lone Star Dream leads at cswRank 1, It Is To Be second and Heapy's Legacy third.
Acceleration, the measure of late turn of foot, again puts It Is To Be first, Questionable second and Lone Star Dream third. On cruising speed, No More Romance ranks first, Vastly second and Major Lightning third — a reminder that the ones with speed to run through the race are not the ones Kingsley rates hardest.
The pattern is clear: the two runners that dominate CAM, CSW and acceleration both settle at the back of an Average-tempo race, while the horses that map forward do not carry the same ratings.
No official tips are flagged in this race.
What to watch: whether the moderate 35.02 per cent pressure lets the closers, It Is To Be and Lone Star Dream, get within striking range.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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