Warwick Farm Race 7 Preview: Ice Kool Rated Short At $1.45
Warwick Farm race 7 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against this morning's market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and cruising standouts.
Warwick Farm's Race 7 is a $150,000 sprint jumping at 4:55pm AEDT, ten runners, overcast skies, a Good surface and the rail in the true position. It is an average-tempo race with a pressure reading of 60.69 per cent, and the way that shape falls is the whole story.
The race and the shape of it
Ten go around with a wide spread of weights, from Coal Crusher (1) humping 65.5kg down to a cluster of 54kg runners at the bottom of the handicap. Kingsley's assessment leans hard towards the lighter end of that scale: all four of his selections carry 59kg or less.
The pressure number sits in the middle band, which means this is not a race likely to collapse under a suicidal speed battle, nor a crawl that sets up a sprint home from the back. It is a fair, honest tempo — and in a fair tempo, position matters.
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The pace picture
Hidden Motive (7) is the one runner whose predicted running position is 1, so he maps to roll forward and lead. He also tops the field on cruising speed — the sustainable mid-race tempo a horse can hold — with 96.4, a clear-cut rank one. His problem is the other end of the equation: his acceleration figure of 70.01 is ranked last of the ten, so if he gets to the front and is still there turning for home, he has the least in reserve to repel a challenger.
Behind him, the pressure comes from Coal Crusher at ppir 2 and Mal Coupe (3) at ppir 3, with Ice Kool (9) at ppir 4 — close enough to the speed to be in the first wave without having to do the donkey work.
The back half of the map is where the risk sits. Kerguelen (5) is projected at ppir 9 from barrier 10, and Silver Wedding (8) at ppir 7 from the three. Both are quality on the numbers and both are being asked to give this field a start.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Ice Kool (9), and the case is built on a run that reads worse than it was — caught out wide and without cover at Randwick last start after an awkward getaway, which is a line to put straight through. He is fitter for it, drops 5.5kg, picks up Zac Lloyd, and his record reads three from three at 1000m, two from two at his second run from a break, and a win from his only visit to this track. He maps to sit right on the speed. Kingsley rates him $1.45 against a $1.70 market this morning, which is the rare case of his assessment being shorter than the board, and he is a Golden Bullet and one of the main plays of the day.
His second pick Kerguelen (5) resumes with three wins from four fresh runs, so the layoff is not the issue, and Nash Rawiller is a genuine positive. He has trialled at the track. Barrier 10 and that ppir 9 projection are the sticking points. Rated $9.50 against a $6.50 market this morning — Kingsley wants more than the board is offering.
His third pick Hidden Motive (7) is the forward option, fitter for the first-up run, down 4kg with the tongue tie going on. Rated $23 against a $14 market this morning, a sizeable gap.
His fourth pick Silver Wedding (8) owns the best acceleration figure in the race by a clear margin at 99.36, missed the start last time and still finished hard, and drops to 54kg. The catch is the map: a long way back, and his cruising figure is ranked last of the ten. Rated $13 against a $7.50 market this morning.
Caught wide and death-seated at Randwick last start after jumping awkwardly, line through that run. Fitter for it, drops 5.5kg and Lloyd takes over. 3 from 3 at 1000m, 2 from 2 second-up, won his only start here. Maps to sit right on the speed. A Golden Bullet and one of my main plays for the day.
Resuming and he's 3 wins from 4 fresh, so the break is no issue, and Rawiller is a big plus on board. Trialled at the track to tune up. Barrier 10 the sticking point though, he'll be coming from the rear and giving them a start. Second pick on assessment.
Tops the field on cruising and maps to roll forward and lead. Fitter for the 1st-up run, drops 4kg and the tongue tie goes on. 3rd pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a clear margin. Missed the start last time and still hit the line hard. Resuming, drops to 54kg. Just maps to get a long way back here. 4th pick.
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CAM is the composite ability rating, and Ice Kool tops it at 90.2858, with Silver Wedding ranked second on 90.0318. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is headed by Coal Crusher on 102.84 — but at nine years old, resuming off 213 days and carrying 65.5kg, he is rated $151 against a $34 market this morning, which tells you how little Kingsley thinks that rating will translate.
Mal Coupe is the one genuine threat on raw numbers, ranked third on CAM, second on CSW and third on cruising. Barrier nine and 61kg are what stop him being a selection, and he is rated $18 against a $10 market this morning. Brudenell (4) is ranked second on acceleration behind Silver Wedding, though 584 days without a win and rated $91 against a $34 market this morning says plenty.
At the bottom, Incognito (10) is ranked last on both CAM and CSW, rated $67 against a $23 market this morning.
What to watch: whether Ice Kool takes up his spot just off Hidden Motive's lead from barrier eight — that is the position the entire rating hangs on.
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