Newcastle Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Newcastle Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW, cruise and acceleration standouts.
Ten runners, $45,000, a fine day and the rail out five metres entire at Newcastle on 6 October, jumping at 4:55pm AEDT. Four first starters, one maiden with three placings from six and a tempo picture that tells you plenty about who can actually use the straight.
The race
This is a maiden affair in every practical sense — River Jordan (1), Wan Lost (2) and Seven Wonders (15) all carry 59kg, and the bottom weights at 55kg include three horses having their first run. The surface is rated G and conditions are fine, so there is no excuse available in the going. Kingsley has rated the race top to bottom and there are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to it, which leaves his own four selections to carry the argument.
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The pace
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure reading of 37.27 per cent — a soft to moderate gallop rather than a race that collapses in front. The predicted in-running figures (ppir, where 1 settles closest to the lead) put Wan Lost on the speed: he maps to lead from barrier 3, and the comment on him is that after settling worse than midfield at Tuncurry, having to steady near the 200m and still chasing hard to go down narrowly, this draw is the one that fixes the problem.
Behind him, Seven Wonders is next most forward on a ppir of 2 from barrier 11, River Jordan third forward on a ppir of 3 but out in gate 10, and Hidden News fourth on a ppir of 4 from the inside alley. Hidden News rolls forward and owns the speed to lead, but 900m is the furthest he has been and today is a 400m jump on that, so the stamina question is live.
The shape matters most for Wave Blaster (14), who has a ppir of 5 and will be giving the leaders a start. Modest pressure is not what a one-paced closer wants — but she is the one runner here whose finishing weapon is genuinely elite.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Wave Blaster (14), rated $3.80 against a $3.90 market this morning — the only runner in the race where rated price and market essentially agree. The reasoning is to forgive the last run entirely: she jumped fast, was restrained to last with no tempo on, which made the task impossible, and she still fought on to the 50m. Second-up, fitter, and barrier 4 is a help.
His second pick is Pierata Magic (13), rated $11 against a $7.50 market this morning — a clear case where the market is shorter than the rating. The Widdup debutant has had five trials, the latest a quiet fifth at Warwick Farm, draws low in two, wears winkers first time, and the booking of C Schofield on a first starter is the kind of detail that gets noticed, as has the early money.
His third pick is Wan Lost (2), rated $3 against a $2.50 market this morning — Kingsley flags him as tight. Three placings from six starts and still a maiden, with A Bullock retaining the ride.
His fourth pick is Victor The Warrior (8), rated $18 against a $13 market this morning, a first starter for the Wong yard off three trials including a fourth at Rosehill, with ear muffs pre-race and gate nine to overcome.
Throw the last one out. She jumped fast, got restrained to last with no tempo on and the task was impossible from there, yet she still kept on tough to the 50m. Best acceleration in the field and rates right up there on CSW. She'll get back and need things to open up, but she's second-up, fitter for the run and barrier 4 is a help. Top pick.
First Starter, but Widdup has taken his time here with 5 trials under the belt and the latest at Warwick Farm was a quiet 5th. Schofield takes the ride, that's a strong booking on a debutant, and there's been early money which always gets my attention. Draws low in 2 and the winkers go on first time. Second pick.
Settled worse than midfield at Tuncurry, had to steady near the 200m and still chased hard to go down narrowly. Bullock sticks, he's a gun rider, and from barrier 3 this bloke maps to sit a lot closer. 3 placings from 6 and still a maiden, and he's a bit tight in the market. Third pick.
First Starter for the Wong yard with 3 trials leading in, the latest at Rosehill where he ran 4th. Ear muffs go on pre-race and he's drawn out in 9, so he'll want luck first go. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Wan Lost ranks first on it at 68.21, with River Jordan second on 67.41 and Seven Wonders third on 66.28. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there River Jordan leads on 76.83 from Wan Lost on 76.18 and Wave Blaster third on 75.40.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain, and Hidden News tops it on 72.80 from Wan Lost on 69.80 — fitting for the two most natural speed horses in the race. Acceleration measures the burst, and Wave Blaster is ranked first in the field on 72.73, narrowly ahead of Seven Wonders on 72.36.
That is the race in one line: the best cruising speed and the best burst are in different horses, and the pressure reading of 37.27 per cent decides which one gets to use it.
Where the value sits
River Jordan is rated $14 against an $11 market this morning despite topping CSW, and the knock is plain — he only plodded home here last time and now draws gate 10. Seven Wonders, rated $41 against a $23 market, is 0 from 6, resuming off 140 days with blinkers coming off. Hard Not Too Like is rated $51 against a $26 market and rates the weakest of the lot.
Watch the first 200m: if Wan Lost crosses cleanly from barrier 3 and Hidden News does not force the issue, Wave Blaster's acceleration may have nothing to run at.
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