Randwick-Kensington Race 6 Preview, Tips And Rated Prices
Randwick-Kensington race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, pace map and the CAM, CSW and cruising standouts.
A seven-horse field on a true rail at Randwick-Kensington, $60,000 up for grabs at 5:15pm AEDT, and a race where the best-rated horse on the clock carries the sort of weight that makes you think twice.
The race
Race 6 is a compact seven-runner affair on a Good surface under fine skies, with the rail in the true position. Small fields can be deceptive: there is a genuine spread here between horses rated near the top on raw time and horses whose class figures sit at the bottom. Weight does a lot of the work too, from 62kg on Anythink Goes down to 56.5kg on Satness, a 5.5kg range across seven runners.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent, which is about as neutral as a race gets. Nobody is going to be dragged along at a suicidal clip, and nobody should get a soft, uncontested lead either.
Agent Zero (6) maps to lead from barrier one, with Satness (8) the next closest to the speed from gate four and True To Form (2) settling handy in third position in the predicted order. Flying From Above (7) sits mid-pack, Hanau (5) behind him, and the two horses giving away the most ground early are Octa De Lago (4) and Anythink Goes (1), the latter predicted to settle last.
That shape matters enormously. An average tempo usually favours the horses parked forward, and it means the closers need the leaders to be under genuine pressure rather than coasting. Octa De Lago's whole case rests on being able to run over the top of them, so he wants Agent Zero and Satness taking each other on rather than strolling.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Octa De Lago (4), rated $3.80 against a $3.40 market this morning. Last start is easily excused: he missed the jump, was restrained, and found himself a dozen lengths adrift of a leader who was not coming back, yet still finished hard. The shape simply did not suit. He is fitter for that first-up run, has drawn barrier two, and this is his correct trip. He will get back, but he has the engine to finish it off.
His second pick True To Form (2) is rated $3.20 against a $2.80 market this morning, so Kingsley has him a shade longer than the market does. The fresh record is the headline — three wins from four first-up — and the Wyong trial leading in was encouraging. J B Mc Donald taking the ride is a significant booking, and the horse settles handy enough to be in the right spot when the race is decided.
His third pick Satness (8) is rated $20 against a $17 market this morning. He won at Kembla 11 days ago and drops 3kg here, and his cruising speed says he can roll forward and make them all work. The caveats are honest ones: this is a harder race and he is deep into a long career at 79 starts.
His fourth pick Anythink Goes (1) is rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. He tops the ratings on both class-adjusted time and acceleration and won a Warwick Farm trial between runs, but he shoulders 62kg as an eight-year-old and drops 700m in trip when everything about his profile screams for further.
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race. Of the unselected trio, Kingsley is cool on Hanau (5), rated $11 against a $9.00 market this morning, despite early support, and happy to oppose both Agent Zero (6) and Flying From Above (7), each rated $11 against an $8.00 market this morning — the former resuming off four months at a trip short of his best, the latter dropping back from 1600m into a much stronger race.
Forgive last start completely, missed the kick, got restrained and was 12 lengths off a tearaway leader before storming home. The shape was all wrong for him. Fitter for the first-up run, much better draw in 2 and this is his right trip. Gets back but has the acceleration to finish them off. Top pick.
Resuming and 3 wins from 4 first-up tells you all you need about how he goes fresh. Trialled well at Wyong leading in and McDonald takes over, which is a serious booking. Settles handy and rates right up to these on the numbers. Second pick and a genuine threat.
Saluted at Kembla 11 days back and gets a handy 3kg off. Best cruising rating in the field so he rolls forward and dictates. Harder race here and the old legs are a factor at 79 starts, but he's in form. 3rd pick.
Tops the ratings on CSW and acceleration and won his trial at Warwick Farm between runs. Handles the sting in the ground too. Problem is 62kg on an 8yo and he's back 700m in trip when everything says he wants a lot further. 4th pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, a single number for overall quality: Anythink Goes ranks first on 84.8116, with Flying From Above second and Satness third. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and Anythink Goes again leads on 95.63, ahead of True To Form on 94.77 and Octa De Lago on 92.17.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race without strain, and Satness is the clear leader on 83.3, with Flying From Above next. Acceleration measures the ability to change gear late, and Anythink Goes tops that too on 94.5232, with Octa De Lago second on 93.6484.
The screenshot line: Anythink Goes ranks first in this field on CAM, CSW and acceleration, and Kingsley still has him only fourth — that is what 62kg and a 700m drop in trip do to a rating.
What to watch: whether Agent Zero and Satness genuinely take each other on early, because Octa De Lago needs that pressure to make his closing speed count.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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