Port Macquarie Race 7 Preview: Tips And Rated Prices
Port Macquarie Race 7 preview: a very fast tempo, 92.6% pressure, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and why the market favourite can be taken on.
A $200,000 feature at Port Macquarie with twelve runners, a true rail and a pressure reading that sits just shy of the ceiling. The shape of this one is the story.
The race
Race 7 jumps at 4:55pm AEDT on a fine day, surface rated G, rail in the true position. Twelve go around, and the weights do a lot of the work: Bear On The Loose carries 58kg at the top, Don Diego De Vega and Unlimited 57.5kg, Cavalry Man 57kg, Medatsu 54.5kg, and the remaining seven all sit on the 54kg minimum. That spread matters in a race where the ratings say the top of the handicap is also the top of the form.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure figure of 92.6 per cent, which is about as genuine as a staying race gets. Bear On The Loose has a ppir of 1 — the lowest number in the field, meaning he maps to lead. Don Diego De Vega (ppir 2) and Cavalry Man (ppir 3) are the next two forward, with Unlimited settling further back at a ppir of 4.
Behind them the race gets uncomfortable. Medatsu projects at a ppir of 8 from barrier nine, Fioprospero at 9 from barrier three despite owning one of the better finishing efforts in the race, and Rothrock and Dance Dance Dance are the two deepest in the predicted order of running at 11 and 12. A very fast tempo is the one scenario that gives those runners a target — but it also means the horses on the speed need to be good enough to keep going, and on these numbers two of them are.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Bear On The Loose (1). The Rosehill run can be put through the pen — he was hard ridden to cross from wide and did it tough in front of the breeze all the way, so capitulating late was no shock. Second-up, 3.5kg lighter and the class runner here, he is rated $3.20 against a $4.40 market this morning, so Kingsley has him considerably shorter than the board. He is also the Golden Bullet in this race.
His second pick is Unlimited (3), three wins from eleven at the trip for a stable that knows what to do with a Cup. He gets well back and needs the front end to crack, which a 92.6 per cent pressure reading makes plausible. The disagreement here runs the other way: rated $13 against a $9.00 market this morning, so Kingsley has him longer than the market does.
His third pick is Don Diego De Vega (2), resuming but with two wins from six fresh and a trial win at Tamworth behind him. The winkers come off, he picks up a strong rider, and the tempo suits. Rated $10 against an $8.50 market this morning. His fourth pick is Cavalry Man (4), who won last start over 2000m from a five-wide trip, which is about as hard as a win gets. Rated $5.50 against a $6.00 market this morning.
The one Kingsley is happy to take on is Medatsu (6), who is in the market at $3.60 this morning but is rated $5.00 — short on his figures and drawn to get a long way back.
Forget the Rosehill run, he was hard ridden to cross from a wide gate and faced the breeze the whole way, no surprise he chucked it in. Second-up now, 3.5kg off his back and he's the class runner in this field. Rates right on top on cruising and the early money is with him. Keen here and he's my Golden Bullet.
3 wins from 11 at the trip and the big stable know their way around a Cup. He gets right back, and with the speed predicted very fast over this trip that's exactly where you want to be, one run at them down the outside. Needs the front end to crack, but on these ratings he's the main threat. Second pick.
Resuming but he's won 2 of 6 fresh and he won his trial at Tamworth with 2 of them leading in. Settles midfield and the very fast tempo on paper over 2000m plays into his hands. Winkers come off and he picks up a strong rider. Third pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a street and he proved it last start, winning over the 2000m after being stuck 5 wide the whole trip. Sits midfield off a very fast tempo and lets down late. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the overall measure of how good a horse is. Cavalry Man tops it at 99.06 and is ranked first in the field, with Bear On The Loose second on 91.18 and Fioprospero third on 90.70.
CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock. Medatsu is ranked first on 97.17 — the one genuine argument for the favourite — with Bear On The Loose second on 96.32 and Don Diego De Vega third on 92.55.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race. Bear On The Loose ranks first on 98, ahead of Fay's Angels on 96 and Casino Bear on 94. Acceleration measures the turn of foot at the end: Cavalry Man is ranked first on 106.98, clear of Fioprospero on 97.43 and Dance Dance Dance on 96.10.
The screenshot line: the horse who maps to lead also owns the best cruising speed in the field and ranks second on both CAM and CSW.
What to watch: whether Bear On The Loose can control a 92.6 per cent tempo from the front, because if he does, the closers never get their chance.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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