Tamworth Race 7 Preview: Very Fast Tempo And Rated Prices
Tamworth Race 7 preview and tips: an 87% pressure reading, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and the acceleration edge that decides it.
A 14-horse sprint at Tamworth with the pressure gauge pinned near the top of its range, and a top pick whose entire profile is built for exactly that scenario.
The race
Tamworth Race 7 jumps at 4:55pm AEDT on Monday, 12 October, worth $30,000 to a field of 14. Conditions are straightforward: overcast skies, a Good surface, the rail in the True position. There are no excuses to be manufactured here — it is a fair track and a full field, which in this grade usually means traffic matters as much as ability.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure percentage of 87.34, and that single number shapes the whole race. When the early fractions are projected that severe, the horses who have to work to hold a spot pay for it in the last 200m, and the ones who can quicken off a genuine tempo get handed the race.
Tomoe Gozen (15) has the lowest predicted in-running figure in the field at a ppir of 1 and maps to lead. Zumbo (2) is next closest on a ppir of 2, with Halo Phenomena (3) on 3 and Imperial State (8) on 4. That is a cluster of forward-going types all wanting the same real estate, which is precisely how an 87 per cent pressure reading gets manufactured. Manoora (4) sits on a ppir of 5 but has to come from barrier 14 of 14 to get there — that is the one genuine caveat on an otherwise strong case.
At the other end, Tropic (6) on 13, Injair (17) on 14 and Northern Boogie (16) on 15 are all projected to be a long way adrift. Late dash is only useful if the race comes back to you; here it might, but not from that far back in a 14-horse field.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Athena's Treasure (7), rated $3.80 against a $4.80 market this morning, and it is also an Official Golden Bullet. The case is clean: she tops the field on the class-speed-weight time rating, owns the best acceleration figure of these, and draws barrier 1. Her last run at Rosehill came in a race with no tempo to chase and she never got into the contest. Back in trip, into easier company, in a race projected to be run very hard early — that is the correction.
His second pick Nevermista (9) is rated $7.50 against a $9.00 market. He was three wide throughout at Dubbo and still only beaten 3.9 lengths, and the record of eight seconds from 24 starts tells you how consistently he turns up. Barrier 5 promises a far kinder trip, and Kingsley has him as the main danger.
His third pick Imperial State (8) is rated $11 against a $9.50 market — so the market is slightly shorter than Kingsley is here. The appeal is a career-best figure last start at Rosehill and local knowledge of this circuit.
His fourth pick Manoora (4) is rated $6.00 against a $4.00 market this morning, a clear disagreement. She ran on well at Dubbo over a similar trip and rates strongly on time, but barrier 14 means burning petrol early in a race that is already projected to be fast.
Two he is happy to take on: Zumbo (2), rated $8.00 against a $5.00 market, up 3kg and settled a long way back at Randwick last time; and Halo Phenomena (3), rated $7.50 against a $5.00 market, resuming off 241 days and wanting to roll forward into a projected speed battle.
Top of the field on CSW and the best acceleration of these, exactly what you want when they're predicted to go very hard early over 1200m. Had no tempo to chase at Rosehill last start and never got into it. Back in trip, into much easier company, barrier 1. Clear value at the quote too. I'm keen, and it's an Official Golden Bullet.
Did it tough 3 wide the whole way at Dubbo and still only went down 3.9 lengths. Honest as they come, 8 seconds from 24 starts, and he gets a far kinder run from barrier 5 this time. Second pick and the main threat to the top of my list.
Career-best rating last start at Rosehill and that form reads well for this grade. Local galloper, knows the place. Third pick.
Rates right up there on CSW and ran on nicely at Dubbo over a similar trip. Problem is barrier 14 of 14 and she'll have to burn to find a spot from there. Early money noted. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating — how fast, against what class, carrying what. Athena's Treasure leads it on 86.45, from Manoora on 82.61 and Zumbo on 81.32. CAM is the composite ability measure, and there the order shifts: Mega Pixel (10) ranks first on 80.26, Athena's Treasure second on 79.93, Tropic third on 78.80.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without stress. Mega Pixel tops it on 86.6, Tomoe Gozen next on 85.1, Manoora third on 83.1. Acceleration measures how sharply a horse can change gear, and Athena's Treasure ranks first on 88.88, ahead of Northern Boogie on 87.33 and Tropic on 85.32.
The standout claim: Athena's Treasure is the only runner in the field ranked first on both CSW and acceleration, in a race the model says will be run at 87 per cent pressure.
What to watch: whether Zumbo and Halo Phenomena commit early from ppir 2 and 3 — if they do, the tempo collapses and the quickeners take over.
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