Taree Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Kingsley's Top Four
Taree Race 7 preview: a very fast tempo at 86.69% pressure, Kingsley's top four, rated prices versus the market and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
A $100,000 mile at Taree with 12 engaged, drizzle falling on a Good track and the rail True. The tempo projection is the story here: this shapes as a race won from behind.
The race
Race 7 jumps at 4:50pm AEDT, 12 runners, surface rated Good with the rail in the True position and drizzle about. It is the feature money on the card and the field is a genuine mix — Matthew Smith and Matthew Kelley imports from the metropolitan end, two from the Annabel and Rob Archibald stable, and a local in Imatruestar with 11 starts at this track for a win and three placings. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to this race, so the read comes down to the ratings and the shape.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Very Fast with a pressure reading of 86.69 per cent — close to the top of the scale, and the single most important number on the page. Danish Fortune (12) maps to lead from barrier one on a ppir of 1, with Spicy Lu (2) next closest at 2 and Sosino (1) at 3 from barrier two. Casino Bear (8) and Creative Righteous (11) fill out the forward group at 4 and 5.
That is a lot of speed committed early over 1600m, and it tilts the race hard toward the closers. Spicy Lu rolls forward but is taking on a genuinely hot lead, and Danish Fortune is a nine-year-old at his 70th start who gave ground once pressed last time. Among the backmarkers, Montpellier sits on a ppir of 11, I've Bean Tryin' 8, Imatruestar 9 and Lensman 10 — all of them need exactly this kind of collapse, and the numbers say they are likely to get it.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Montpellier (3), rated $6.00 against a $5.00 market this morning — Kingsley's view is the market has that about right. He got well back at Dubbo and still finished off strongly, and the predicted pressure is precisely the setup he wants. He carries the best finishing speed figure of Kingsley's four selections and holds a class edge on ratings, with the caveat that from barrier 10 and well back he is dependent on the race being run to suit.
His second pick Sosino (1) is rated $7.50 against a $6.00 market this morning. He is fitter for the first-up run and has two wins from five second-up, with A Bullock a clear upgrade in the saddle. The reservations are the 59.5kg and the fact that, sitting third on the pace map, he is handy enough to be caught up in the speed battle.
His third pick Imatruestar (9) is rated $13.00 against an $11.00 market this morning, dropping from 61.5kg to 54kg with a sharp late burst and strong local form. His fourth pick Creative Righteous (11) is rated $12.00 against an $11.00 market this morning, backing up in seven days and coming back from 2000m — the ratings suggest he would prefer further.
The clearest disagreement with the market is Fierceness (4): rated $4.80 against a $3.60 market this morning. He won well at Warwick Farm, but his class-speed-weight figure sits below the main players and Kingsley is happy to take him on at that price.
Got well back at Dubbo and still ran on hard through the line, and the pressure predicted here is exactly what he's after. Best finishing speed in the field on my numbers and he holds a class edge on ratings. Does need the race run to suit from midfield back, but there's upside in him yet. Top pick, market has the price about right.
Fitter for the first-up run and he's 2 wins from 5 second-up, so he's at the right stage. Bullock is a genuine upgrade in the saddle and the ratings give him a class edge over most of these. Only knock is the 59.5kg rise and he's handy enough to cop the brunt of what shapes as a hot speed. Second pick.
Big weight drop from 61.5kg to 54kg and he's got a serious turn of foot late. Local horse too, 11 starts here for a win and 3 seconds. Been a long while between drinks, but he can run into this. Third pick.
Backs up in 7 days and comes back in trip from 2000m. Hit the front briefly last start then tired, and the ratings say he'd rather more ground than this. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's raw quality. Lensman (13) tops it at 90.24, from Montpellier second at 88.38 and Fierceness third at 87.45.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which adjusts performance for the grade and the weight carried. I've Bean Tryin' (7) ranks first at 89.79, Sosino second at 89.58 and Spicy Lu third at 89.49, with Montpellier fourth at 89.31.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race: Spicy Lu leads at 92.4, Danish Fortune second at 91.6, Casino Bear third at 89.6 — the three forward types, which is exactly why the pressure number reads so high.
Acceleration is the finishing burst. Lensman ranks first at 95.63, Montpellier second at 94.87, Imatruestar third at 92.47. Lensman is rated $21.00 against a $26.00 market this morning, but his CSW ranks 10th of 12 and Kingsley has him up against it in a race this tough.
What to watch: whether Danish Fortune and Spicy Lu go hard enough early to bring Montpellier and the other closers into it off a genuinely strong tempo.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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