Caulfield Race 9 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Read
Caulfield race 9 preview: a Fast tempo over 2400m, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, and the metrics behind them.
Eighteen runners, 2400m, $6,545,000 in prize money and a tempo reading that puts the leaders under real pressure. Caulfield's Race 9 jumps at 5:15pm AEDT and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Partly cloudy, a Good surface and the rail out three metres for the entire circuit. Eighteen go around, weights spanning 57.5kg on Half Yours (1) down to 51kg on Kings Valley (18), and the shape of the race is set by a field with three genuine overseas-trained raiders in it — Enfjaar (7) from Roger Varian, Wine Dark Sea (10) from Harry Charlton and Starford (13) from Joseph O'Brien. Starford arrives resuming without a public trial and adds visors for the first time, which is a lot of unknowns to take at this level.
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The pace picture
This is the number that frames everything: a Fast tempo band with a pressure reading of 72.24 per cent. Over 2400m, that is a race where the forward brigade pays for its position in the straight.
Royal Supremacy (9) maps to lead on a ppir of 1 — ppir measures predicted settling position, with 1 meaning closest to the lead — and had things entirely his own way in front here last start. He will not get that luxury today. Kingswood (4) sits next closest on a ppir of 2, She's A Hustler (14) third on 3, and the favourite Cosmic Crusader (2) is handy on 4. Behind them the race opens up for anything that can relax: Zahrann (16) maps midfield on a ppir of 9, while Ohope Wins (17) on 15 and Kings Valley (18) on 14 are likely to be giving the leaders a long head start from the outside halves of the draw.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Wine Dark Sea (10), the British raider, and this is where the rated line and the market diverge most usefully: rated $6 against an $8.50 market this morning. The resuming profile suits — he has won fresh before, and his record at 2400m reads two wins and a second from three starts, from four wins in ten overall. Damian Lane takes the ride from barrier 16. This one also carries the Golden Bullet official tip to back.
His second pick is Zahrann (16), rated $9 against an $8.50 market this morning. Forgive the last run: a length slow out on a Heavy 8 at Flemington and never in the contest. Back on good ground the record reads four wins from six, he drops 3.5kg to 53kg and draws barrier 3. With a Fast tempo in front of him, midfield is exactly where you want to be. The query is simple — he has never raced beyond 2000m.
His third pick is Enfjaar (7), rated $13 against an $11 market this morning. Resuming is the sweet spot with three wins from six fresh, and barrier 1 is the pick of the draw. There is no public trial to work from, so the fresh record is doing the heavy lifting.
His fourth pick is the favourite, Cosmic Crusader (2), rated $6.50 against a $5.50 market this morning. Eleven wins from 22 says the class is genuine. The reservations are the trip — never past 2000m — and the fact he settles handy in a race predicted to run fast.
The British raider is the one I want in the Cup. Resuming suits: has won fresh before, and the record at 2400m reads 2 wins and a second from 3 runs. 4 wins from 10 overall. Damian Lane, a top jockey, takes the ride, and the market has this well over the odds against my assessment. Strong play for mine and an Official Tip.
Forgive the last one. Slow out by a length on a Heavy(8) at Flemington and never got into it. Back on good ground, where the record is 4 wins from 6, drops 3.5kg to 53 and draws 3. Maps midfield, and with a Fast tempo predicted over 2400m that's the spot to be. Never been past 2000m, so the trip is the question. Second pick.
Resuming, and that's the sweet spot: 3 wins from 6 when fresh. Draws barrier 1 and the Varian stable sends it out from Newmarket. 5 wins from 16 overall. No public trial to go on, so I'm leaning on the fresh record. Third pick.
The favourite and top-rated on CSW with 11 wins from 22, so the class is real. My query is the trip: never been past 2000m, and settles handy in a race predicted to run at a Fast tempo over 2400m. Pike stays on. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Half Yours (1) tops the field on it at 114, as well as leading on acceleration — the measure of how quickly a horse can change gear — at 134.801, ranked first by a clear margin. The catch is 57.5kg over 2400m, which is a heavy ask.
CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and Cosmic Crusader (2) ranks first on 107.38, with Half Yours second at 102.54. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Royal Supremacy (9) leads that on 104 ahead of She's A Hustler (14) on 99.5. She's A Hustler is also second-ranked on acceleration at 115.414 and third on CAM at 108.341, but gave ground when going forward on the heavy at Flemington last start.
What to watch: how hard Royal Supremacy is pressed early — if the 72.24 per cent pressure reading is right, the race will be won from behind him.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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