Orange Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And The Pace Map
Orange Race 7 preview for Monday: a fast-tempo 1000m dash, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, plus the CAM and CSW standouts.
A fast-tempo 1000m dash at Orange in the drizzle, with the market and Kingsley's figures pulling in opposite directions on the two shortest runners in the race.
The race
Orange Race 7 jumps at 5:50pm AEDT on Monday 19 October for $30,000, eleven runners on a Good surface with the rail out 3.5m from the 500m to the winning post. Drizzle is falling, which rarely helps the ones who need cover and a sit.
It is a dash, and the weights tell their own story. Divine Conclusion (1) carries 64.5kg resuming and drops from 1620m to 1000m — a horse crying out for more ground, not less. Can Do It (2) humps 63kg at nine years of age. At the other end, Bold Tee (19) gets in at 55.5kg but rates off the bottom of the field on the numbers. The sweet spot sits in the middle of the weight range, and that is exactly where Kingsley's top four come from.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 83.71 per cent — a genuinely hot shape for a sprint this short. Xceptional Spirit (11) is the only runner with a ppir of 1, so she maps to lead, with Travelon Dory (6) on 2 and Media Coverage (16) on 3 hard at her. Sardonyx (14) settles fourth-handiest on ppir 4 and Brogans Creek (12) on 5.
The problem for the speed is what sits behind it. Twin Gift (9) on ppir 8, Can Do It on 9, Bold Tee on 10 and Divine Conclusion on 11 are all getting a long way back, and over 1000m that is usually terminal — except that pressure reading says the leaders will be under siege from the jump. Kingsley is firmly against the pacemaker: Xceptional Spirit went forward at a similar quote last start and emptied in the straight, and she rates the weakest runner in the race on his figures despite being rated $6 against a $4.40 market this morning.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Wellspring (4), winner at Grenfell over this same trip and in good order this prep, with Jacob Stiff staying on. The knock is a 7kg rise to 62.5kg into a stronger race than the one he won. He is rated $9 against a $6.00 market this morning, so the figure says the market has already gone past him — the selection is on merit, not price.
His second pick Brogans Creek (12) won at Mudgee 16 days back and picks up Clayton Gallagher, a positive for mine, with a sound record at this track. He is rated $10 against an $8.50 market this morning and maps midfield on ppir 5.
His third pick Twin Gift (9) resumes after 140 days without a recent trial, but is two from five at Orange for a stable based here, missed the start last time and still kept finding the line. He gets right back and sprints home; 1000m may just be too sharp. Rated $12 against an $11.00 market this morning.
His fourth pick Sardonyx (14) was caught five deep at Dubbo and could only hold ground — forgivable. He settles handy with a class edge, but barrier 11 is the issue. Rated $18 against an $18.00 market this morning, the one runner where the two numbers agree.
No Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips have been issued for this race.
Saluted at Grenfell last start over this same trip and he's bang in form this prep. Jacob Stiff sticks and he's a rider I'll always take. The 7kg weight rise to 62.5kg is the obvious knock and this is a stiffer race than the one he won, but he's the one I rate on top. Top pick, market's got him shorter than my own figure though, so no real value in it for mine.
Won at Mudgee 16 days back and comes in here off that. Gallagher takes over, and that's a tick for mine. No map on him today but he's been good at this track in the past. Second pick.
Resuming after 140 days without a recent trial, but he's 2 from 5 at this track and the stable's based here. Missed the start last time and still kept going to the line. Gets right back and finishes off, 1000m might just be sharp enough for him. Third pick.
Caught 5 wide the whole way at Dubbo last time and could only hold ground, forgive that one. Settles handy and holds a class edge on these. Drawn the outside gate in 11 and that's the worry. Fourth pick.
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CAM is the composite ability rating, and Divine Conclusion tops it at 81.2312 from Can Do It on 77.4712 — but the weights and the trip drop are why neither is a selection. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Can Do It first on 80.55, Bounding Bon (5) second on 75.66 and Divine Conclusion third on 75.49.
Cruising speed — the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race — belongs to Xceptional Spirit at 83.8, Travelon Dory at 83 and Sardonyx at 81, which is the shape of that forward trio. Acceleration, the finishing burst, flips it completely: Divine Conclusion leads on 89.3796, Can Do It 84.6259 and Twin Gift 81.8878. Three of the four fastest-cruising runners rank ninth, tenth and eleventh for acceleration.
What to watch: whether the leaders survive an 83.71 per cent pressure reading, or whether the closers get the collapse they need.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.