Kyneton Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Map
Kyneton race 6 preview: a very fast tempo, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts in a nine-horse field.
A nine-horse field at Kyneton in the drizzle, a pressure reading of 93.23 per cent, and a market that disagrees with the ratings on at least three runners. This is the Race Of The Day.
The race
Kyneton Race 6 jumps at 4:30pm AEDT for $27,000, nine runners, with the rail out six metres to the 1200m and out one metre for the remainder. The weather forecast is drizzle, which matters in a race where the two runners carrying the most weight — Savvie Blanc at 62kg and Seeyou Raider at 61.5kg — are also among the better-rated horses in the field. The grid is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast and the pressure number sits at 93.23 per cent, which is about as hot as these fields get. Tempt The Gods is the only runner with a predicted in-running position of 1, so he is the one who maps to lead, and barrier one makes that straightforward. Immediately outside him is Aubaine at ppir 2, a horse that has to go forward again after sitting outside the leader last start at Moe and weakening right out of it as a well-backed favourite. That is the engine of this race: two confirmed forward types plus Seeyou Raider at ppir 3, who bolted in at Kilmore by more than three lengths seven days ago and will not get anything like the same cheap run here.
The shape favours the horses who settle just off it. Savvie Blanc sits at ppir 4 and Brroosha at ppir 5, both close enough to be in the fight and far enough back to be running home at the ones in front. At the other end, Our Pierro is ppir 9 and Earl Of Gloucester ppir 8 — a long way to make up, and both resuming.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Brroosha (10), who put them away at Warrnambool on a heavy track and hit a peak rating doing it. Declan Bates sticks, the Maher stable is firing and there has been early money. She is up 2kg on a similar trip, and the honest note is that the market is shorter than the rating: rated $6.50 against a $5.00 market this morning, so there is no great edge at the quote in a tight race.
His second pick Seeyou Raider (2) backs up quickly off that Kilmore win and is the one the ratings like most on cruising speed. He is rated $10 against a $6.50 market this morning — a clear disagreement, and the reason is the tempo: the very fast shape means he will be doing far more work to hold his position than he did last time.
His third pick Savvie Blanc (1) is worth forgiving for the Caulfield Heath run, which looked hopeless mid-race before he got going again and is not a true guide. He is trained at Kyneton, John Allen is a strong booking, and from midfield with the speed on he has the weapon that matters here. The catches are the 62kg and barrier nine. Rated $9.50 against a $9.00 market this morning.
His fourth pick Tempt The Gods (4) kicked clear at Ballarat and only just went under. Third-up, fitter for two runs back and drawn to roll forward from barrier one, he is rated $10 against a $9.50 market this morning, but he will need to be sharper than Ballarat to win this.
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips registered in this race.
Put them away at Warrnambool last start on a heavy track and hit a peak rating doing it. Bates sticks, the stable is firing and there's been early money. Up 2kg on a similar trip and the market has her shorter than I rate her, so no great edge at the quote - but she's my top pick in a tight market.
Bolted in by more than 3 lengths at Kilmore 7 days back and backs up quickly. Rates the best in the race on cruising and should be rolling forward to lead again. The catch is a Very Fast tempo on paper - he won't get it anywhere near as cheap out in front as he did last start. Second pick.
No comment available for this runner.
Forget the last one at Caulfield Heath - looked hopeless then got going again, a funny sort of run and not a true guide. Trained at Kyneton, Allen is a strong booking, and he's got one of the best turns of foot in the race from midfield with the speed on. The 62kg and the wide gate are the catches. Third pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating — the all-in measure of a horse's quality. Seeyou Raider tops it at 82.4744, from Savvie Blanc at 79.1257 and Brroosha at 78.4857, which is the top three and the top three selections in a slightly different order.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and here the leader is Aubaine at 87.83, ahead of Savvie Blanc at 84.92 and Tempt The Gods at 83.90. Aubaine's problem is not the time figure, it is the role: forward again into a very fast tempo after folding from the same spot last start.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain comfortably, and Seeyou Raider ranks first at 84.2 with Aubaine second at 82.7 and Brroosha third at 80.7. Acceleration measures the sprint off that cruise, and Savvie Blanc ranks first at 82.4917 from Seeyou Raider at 80.7789 and Brroosha at 76.3098. That split is the whole race in two numbers: the horses who can go fast early and the horse who can change gear late.
Against the market
Two runners are taken on. Russian Front won easily on the Pakenham synthetic but is four wins from 36, sits fifth on CAM and seventh on CSW, and is rated $4.80 against a $4.00 market this morning. Our Pierro is rated $8.00 against a $5.50 market this morning, resuming off 262 days, back to a trip well short of ideal and ranked last of the nine on CAM, CSW, cruising and acceleration from ppir 9.
What to watch: whether Aubaine commits outside Tempt The Gods — if she does, that 93.23 per cent pressure reading becomes real and the race falls to the closers.
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