Geelong Race 7 Preview: Fast Tempo And Kingsley's Rated Prices
Geelong Race 7 preview: a $500,000 staying test with a fast tempo, 79.06% pressure, Kingsley's top four and every rated price against the market.
Geelong's Race 7 is a $500,000 affair over 2400m at 4:10pm AEDT, 13 runners, fine weather, a Good surface and the rail out at True Entire Circuit. It is fully rated and free to view on theking.zone today.
The race
This is the sort of staying race where the weight scale does the arguing. Vauban (1) carries 60.5kg, The Euphrates (2) 58.5kg, Wootton Verni (3) 58kg, and at the other end of the handicap five of them sit on 54kg. Gary Waterhouse and Adrian Bott hold two of the top three weights, Chris Waller has Wootton Verni and Soulcombe (6), and Joseph O'Brien is doubled up with Small Fry (10) and Omni Man (13). There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to this race.
Today's featured race is free in full — one email, no card.
The pace picture
The tempo band is Fast and the pressure reading is 79.06%, which is a genuine staying gallop rather than a sit-and-sprint. The predicted in-run positions (ppir, where 1 settles closest to the lead) have Wootton Verni mapping to lead from barrier four. Litzdeel (11) is next closest from the inside gate, with Vauban third and The Euphrates fourth, so the front end is busy and the two biggest weights are in the thick of it.
That shape cuts both ways. The Euphrates had his own way in front last start and still could not hold on when challenged at the 200m, so rolling forward again into a fast-run 2400m is the obvious query against him. Sapphire Siren (18) weakened badly once headed last time and a genuine speed is the last thing she wants. The runners settling furthest back — Onesmoothoperator (5), Berkeley Square (4), Hurry Curry (15) — get the tempo they need but have other problems, chiefly a long time between wins and a jump in grade.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is The Euphrates (2), rated $3.80 against a $3.50 market this morning, so the market is shorter than the rating. He is the best-rated runner in the field on the numbers and Blake Shinn is a clear positive, but the pace shape and that forward map are the reasons Kingsley calls him well found rather than a bet.
His second pick Litzdeel (11) is rated $5.00 against a $5.50 market this morning — the one selection where the rating is shorter than the price on offer. Barrier one is a real help after she was caught wider last time, she chased hard to go down by a length at Flemington, and Jamie Melham takes over.
His third pick Omni Man (13) is the big disagreement: rated $34 against a $21 market this morning. He is resuming off a trial win at Randwick with cheekpieces going on for the first time, which Kingsley liked without wanting to be short about it.
His fourth pick Point Of Law (8) is rated $8.50 against a $5.00 market this morning. Two wins from four starts and clearly a horse with a future, but he resumes for start number five and has the outside gate in 13 to unravel. Ciaron Maher has him here for a reason.
The honest summary from Kingsley: he has rated the race, he has ranked the four, and he is content to sit this one out because the value is not there.
Got it his own way up front last start and still couldn't finish it off when collared at the 200m. Best rated in the field and Shinn's a big plus, but he rolls forward again and the tempo shapes up genuine over 2400m, that's the query. Top pick on the numbers, just seems well found and there's no edge in this race for mine.
Barrier 1 is a real help after being caught wider last time, and she chased hard to go down by a length at Flemington. Melham gets the leg-up and she settles midfield. Second pick, but it's a race with no value in it for mine.
Resuming and won his trial at Randwick, liked the look of that. Cheekers go on first time. 3rd pick in a race I'm not betting.
2 wins from 4 and clearly has a future, but he's resuming for his 5th start and has the outside gate in 13 to sort out. Maher has him here for a reason. 4th pick, though I'm happy to sit this race out.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, a single number for overall quality. Sapphire Siren tops it, with Wootton Verni ranked second and Onesmoothoperator third — a reminder that raw ability and race fit are different things here.
CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock. The Euphrates ranks best, Vauban second, Wootton Verni third, which is where those top weights earn their respect.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without being asked. The Euphrates ranks best there too at 97.3, from Sapphire Siren at 95.8 and Omni Man at 89.8 — notable given Omni Man has no other metric populated.
Acceleration measures the ability to quicken off that cruise. Vauban ranks best at 101.814, from Wootton Verni and Onesmoothoperator. Vauban resuming at nine with 60.5kg is the catch, and Kingsley is not interested at rated $21 against a $14 market this morning.
What to watch: whether Wootton Verni gets an easy lead or The Euphrates and Vauban force the issue — at 79.06% pressure, that decision in the first 400m decides the race.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.