Gosford Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Gosford Race 6 preview: a fast tempo over 2030m, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and why his Official Tip is over the odds at 4:15pm.
A $42,000 contest over 2030m at Gosford with a fast tempo projected and a pressure reading of 72.24 per cent. That shape points to the closers, and that is exactly where Kingsley's top pick is drawn to be.
The race
Gosford Race 6 jumps at 4:15pm AEDT on Thursday, a 10-horse field racing on a Good surface in drizzle, with the rail out three metres to the 600m and four metres for the remainder. It is a genuine staying assignment at 2030m, and the trip is the central question for much of the field: several of these runners have never been asked to go anywhere near this far. The race is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast and the pressure gauge sits at 72.24 per cent, which for a staying race is a figure that tends to flatten out anything doing its own thing in front. Balmain Warrior (5) is the one runner with a predicted in-running position of 1, so he maps to lead from the inside gate, with Mochima (7) out of barrier one and Ausbred Eclipse (4) also projected to race forward despite drawing the outside. Scoish Maloish (9) and Renoir (3) fill out the first half of the grid.
Behind them, the pattern is clear. Don's Party (1) is projected to settle last of the field, Powerful Prayer (2) second-last and Wizard's Star (8) not far in front of them. What She's Having (10) also settles back, and that is the point: if the speed up front is as hot as the gauge suggests, the horses taking the sit are the ones with something to run at in the straight. Frankie's Boy (6), described as the natural leader type of this field, is nonetheless projected to be ridden with cover rather than out in front, and 2030m under pressure is a harder exercise than it would be over a mile.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is What She's Having (10), rated $5.00 against a $7.00 market this morning, and she carries the Official Tip to back. She missed the start last time and still worked home hard through traffic, a run that reads considerably better than the margin suggests. She is projected to settle in the back half, which is precisely the profile the pressure reading rewards, and Kerrin McEvoy is a meaningful riding upgrade.
His second pick is Frankie's Boy (6), rated $5.00 against a $4.40 market this morning, and Kingsley has him as the main danger. The way the Goulburn race was run last start was against him and he still only went under by a length and a half. Tim Clark takes the ride.
His third pick is Balmain Warrior (5), rated $18.00 against a $14.00 market this morning, and the support is measured: the inside gate and the forward map give him a fresh angle, but he is 0 from 6, found little when put under pressure last time, and this is a long way further than he has ever travelled.
His fourth pick is Don's Party (1), rated $8.50 against a $6.50 market this morning. The step up from the mile suits, a tongue tie goes on for the first time, and from the back of the field he will be aimed at a leader-killing tempo.
One to take on: Powerful Prayer (2) is rated $4.60 against a $3.50 market this morning, with one win from 16 starts and three kilograms more to carry.
Missed the kick last start and still worked home strongly through traffic, that run was a good deal better than the bare result. She'll be settling at the rear and with the speed predicted on up front over 2030m, that's exactly where I want her. McEvoy is a serious upgrade and she's well over the odds. Looks a strong play and an Official Tip.
Clear leader type of the race and rates best on cruising, though the speed predicted on makes life harder out in front over 2030m. The way the race was run last time was all against him at Goulburn and he still only went down a length and a half. Tim Clark jumps on. 2nd pick and the biggest threat to my top selection.
Settles handy from the inside gate and the extra ground gives him a fresh angle. Trouble is he found little when asked last start, he's 0 from 6, and this is a good chunk further than he's ever gone. 3rd pick and no more than that.
Up in trip from the mile and this looks right in his wheelhouse. He'll be winding up from the rear, but he owns the 2nd best acceleration in the race and the speed predicted up front gives him something to run at late. Tongue tie goes on for the 1st time. 4th pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, a single number for overall quality. Powerful Prayer tops it at 80.50, from Frankie's Boy at 77.88 and Don's Party at 76.68.
CSW measures class, speed and weight through time ratings. Wizard's Star ranks first at 85.33, Scoish Maloish second at 82.46 and What She's Having third at 81.85.
Cruising speed is the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race. Frankie's Boy ranks first at 84.20, ahead of Balmain Warrior at 81.70 and Ausbred Eclipse at 79.70.
Acceleration is the turn of foot available late. Powerful Prayer ranks first at 89.01, Don's Party second at 80.13 and What She's Having third at 79.46 — two of Kingsley's four picks holding top-three sprint figures from the back half of the grid.
What to watch: how hard Balmain Warrior is allowed to go in front, because the harder the fractions, the better the late brigade is placed.
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