Gawler Race 7 Preview: Cicala, Sir Kingsford And Rated Prices
Gawler Race 7 preview: the pace map, Kingsley's top four and rated prices, with Cicala rated $3.20 against a $2.90 market this morning.
Fifteen go around under lights at Gawler for $107,500, and the race asks one question: can the short-priced mare get close enough early to use her class, or does the shape hand it to the horses coming from behind?
The race
Gawler Race 7 jumps at 6:54pm AEDT on a fine evening with the rail in the true position. It is a full field of 15, with weights spanning 60kg down to 54kg. Chicago Storm (1) carries the top weight of 60kg off barrier 4, and Kingsley's read on him is blunt: the eight-year-old shouldered that impost and emptied out inside the final 200m last time, which is why the rating profile and the recommendation part company. He is rated $17 against an $11.00 market this morning.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent — a race that should be run at a fair clip without turning into a sprint-and-sprawl. The ppir numbers (the lower the figure, the closer a horse settles to the lead) put Bootlegger (3) on top at 1, so he maps to lead from barrier 6. Scandalize (14) sits next at 2 off the inside gate and will be handy, but his acceleration rating is the second-weakest in the field and he dropped away badly last start. Chicago Storm at 4 and Sir Kingsford at 5 fill in the forward bracket.
That matters at both ends. Isuspectjeu (10), Alpine Flyer (13) and Dirty Old Town (9) all map a long way back, and Kingsley's notes lean on a fast tempo setting the race up for those finishing off. Stirrup Cup (12), on a ppir of 14, is likely to be near last again despite hitting the line last time and trialling well at Balaklava.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Cicala (7). A wide gate last start had her eased back and she was then steadied off heels in the straight before running on, which is easy to excuse. She rates second on CSW, has a clear class edge on these, and barrier 8 is a far kinder draw. The catch is the quote: rated $3.20 against a $2.90 market this morning, so there is nothing in it for the backer.
His second pick Sir Kingsford (4) is where the numbers get interesting. He tops both the CAM and cruising speed rankings, he is trained at Gawler, and he battled on gamely when run down at Murray Bridge in a race whose shape worked against him. Barrier 13 of 15 is the obstacle — he will roll forward again but has to work to get there. Rated $8.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, so Kingsley has him meaningfully longer than the board.
His third pick Bamyan Buddha (5) was stuck wide with no cover last start and still stuck his nose out to deadheat for third. Four wins from eight at Gawler says he knows the place; barrier 14 is the awkward part. Rated $8.50 against an $8.00 market this morning — close to square.
His fourth pick Alpine Flyer (13) drops from 59.5kg to 54kg and was beaten under a length at Morphettville. He ranks second on acceleration and maps well back, which is the profile a genuinely run race rewards. Rated $26 against a $23.00 market this morning.
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
Wide gate last time so she was eased right back, then steadied off heels in the straight and still ran on well late, easy to forgive that. Rates near the top of the field on CSW with a clear class edge on these, and the draw is far kinder today. Expect her a lot closer. Top pick, though the quote leaves you nothing to play with.
Battled on gamely when just run down at Murray Bridge and the shape of that race was against him. Rank 1 on cruising and CAM, trained here at Gawler, and he'll roll forward again. The query is barrier 13 of 15 and a fast tempo predicted, he'll have to work to find the front and won't get it easy there. Second pick.
Stuck wide with no cover last start and still poked his nose out to deadheat for 3rd. 4 wins from 8 at Gawler, he loves the place, and there's early money about. Barrier 14 the awkward bit. Third pick.
Big weight drop from 59.5kg to 54kg and he was beaten under a length at Morphettville last start. Second best acceleration in the race and a fast tempo predicted sets it up for the ones coming from the rear. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race and acceleration measures the turn of foot at the business end.
Chicago Storm tops CSW at 96.6 with Cicala next at 94.43. Sir Kingsford leads CAM at 99.43 and cruising at 101.4, with Chicago Storm second on cruising at 99.4. Isuspectjeu owns the best acceleration figure in the race at 106.73, but he drops 500m in trip and maps right out the back, so the burst has to be found in traffic. Alpine Flyer is next at 101.99, Teardrop Rotation (15) third at 98.17. At the other end, Age Of Kings (6) is last on both CAM and acceleration and looks to want considerably further.
Where the market and the ratings split
The headline disagreement is Sir Kingsford: top of the CAM and cruising charts, rated $8.50, yet a $6.50 market this morning. Bootlegger, who maps to lead, is rated $10 against an $8.50 market and sits sixth on CAM — Kingsley is content to watch that one.
Watch the first 400m: if Sir Kingsford has to burn from barrier 13 to find the front, the race tilts toward Cicala and Alpine Flyer late.
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