Ararat Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Read

A 12-horse field over 2200m at Ararat with $80,000 up for grabs, an overcast afternoon, a Good surface and the rail out in its True Entire Circuit position. The shape of this one matters more than the ratings sheet does.

The race

Race 6 jumps at 4:15pm AEDT and it is the kind of staying handicap where the weight spread tells half the story. Aftermath and Thedoctoroflove shoulder 59kg at the top, Raging Bull is on 57.5kg, and down at the foot sit six runners on 54kg — Male Model, Nothingelsematters, Cable Dancer, Slane, Budjik Boy and Saveadateforme. Among that group are several of the horses with the most to gain from how the tempo is projected to unfold.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Fast and the pressure gauge sits at 64.39 per cent, which is a genuine, sustained early speed reading rather than a short sharp burst. Aftermath is the only runner with a ppir of 1 — the metric predicting where a horse settles, with 1 being closest to the lead — so he maps to lead. He will not be alone up there: Nothingelsematters is next at ppir 2, Slane sits on 3 and Tikemyson on 4, so the first half of this race looks likely to be contested rather than conceded.

That is the pivot point. Over 2200m with that much pressure applied, the prize usually goes to something settling off it. Cable Dancer (ppir 10) and Budjik Boy (ppir 9) both map well back, and in this shape that is a help rather than a handicap. At the other end, Saveadateforme settles handy on a ppir of 7 and Slane rolls forward on 3 — the lead is a hard place to be under this sort of pressure, particularly for a horse without a win in 522 days.

Kingsley's four

His top pick is Aftermath (1), who bolted in by nearly five lengths at Mortlake last week with the race shape against him. He rolls forward again from barrier 8, the trip is no concern for a horse that has raced to 3200m, and 59kg at his age is the honest knock. Rated $3.80 against a $3.60 market this morning — close enough to call the market fair.

His second pick Cable Dancer (10) is where the disagreement lives. She did her best work late at Mornington after getting back and wide, beaten under two lengths, and now drops a full 8kg while backing up quickly. Two wins from six attempts at the trip, a midfield-to-back map and a predicted hot speed in front: rated $4.20 against a $5.50 market this morning, with early money already showing.

His third pick Tikemyson (6) gets a 3kg weight drop and the lugging bit comes off, settles handy and is rarely far away when the run of the race suits, though 2200m is beyond his preferred distance. That reservation is priced in — rated $41 against a $15 market this morning, a clear case of Kingsley sitting well above the market.

His fourth pick Budjik Boy (12) maps at the tail, which again suits in this tempo. He ran on into fourth at Mortlake last week, takes a jockey upgrade and has attracted early support. Rated $20 against a $12 market this morning.

What the numbers say

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Male Model (8) tops it at 91.5563 from Raging Bull (4) and Saveadateforme (13). Male Model also leads CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — at 92.99, with Raging Bull second on 91.59 and Aftermath third on 90.96. On acceleration, the measure of finishing burst, Male Model is clear at 100.64 from Raging Bull on 95.3754 and Thedoctoroflove (2) on 88.1107.

The catch with the ratings leader is written into his map: Male Model has a ppir of 12, the furthest back in the field, and he struck trouble again last start. Cruising speed, the sustainable tempo a horse can hold, is headed by Slane (11) at 94.2, with Aftermath second at 92.7 and Saveadateforme third at 90.7 — which is exactly why the front end here looks likely to go hard and then feel it.

No Golden Bullet or Good Roughie has been issued in this race.

Watch the first 600m: if Aftermath, Nothingelsematters and Slane all take each other on, Cable Dancer's 8kg drop out of the back half becomes the race.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.