Warwick Farm Race 6 Preview: Speed Wars Suit The Swoopers

The tempo is the whole story of this one. A very fast band and a pressure reading near the top of the dial means the on-pacers are racing into a headwind, and Kingsley has built his ticket around the horses waiting to pounce.

The race

Race 6 at Warwick Farm on 19 August is a $60,000 event over a field of 12, jumping at 4:20pm AEST on a fine day with the rail in the true position. It is a competitive grade with several progressive types, and the shape of it is defined by one number: a pressure reading of 92.78 percent inside a tempo band graded Very Fast. When the speed is that hot up front, leaders and on-pacers are the ones under threat, and the runners settling off it get the race run to suit.

How it maps

Winning Proposal (2) is the one runner whose ppir reads 1, so he maps to lead, with Valilee (4) at ppir 2 mapping to sit right on the speed. That is the crux of Kingsley's argument against the favourite: Valilee has won three of four and trialled sharply, but he has to find the front in a race loaded with speed and will cop a stack of pressure in a harder grade. The market has him at a $3.30 quote this morning against Kingsley's rated $4, and he is happy to take him on at that price.

At the other end, the swoopers get the tempo they want. Rantan (5) maps deepest of all at ppir 12, with Manukau (8) at ppir 10 and Spartus (7) at ppir 11 also getting well back. Gambler (12) and Just Awesome (13) are on-pace types that the pressure figures to find out.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Fierce (9), rated $3.80 against a $3.50 market this morning. Two wins from four and perfect first-up, he maps midfield at ppir 9 with a nice weight drop and the turn of foot to pounce once the speed cracks. The hot tempo plays right into his hands.

His second pick and the biggest threat is Manukau (8), rated $7 against a $6.50 market. He owns the best acceleration in the field and the hot tempo sets up perfectly for a swooper; he held up and hit the line hard last time, and while he gets well back, that is the plan.

His third pick is Scillato (6), resuming for the local yard and trialled nicely. Kingsley rates him $9 against a more generous $14 market this morning, calling that a bit of value, with the acceleration to swoop when the tempo cracks. His fourth pick is Rantan (5), rated $9.50 against a $10 market, a genuine backmarker who wants exactly this kind of searing speed and hit the line hard last time; there is a touch of overs about him even with the weight climbing.

No official tips are flagged in this race.

The metrics

CAM, the composite ability rating, has Scillato on top at camRank 1, with Valilee second and Manukau third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, points to Valilee at cswRank 1, then Rantan and Scillato. Cruising speed, a measure of how fast a horse travels through its race, again favours Valilee at cruisingRank 1, with Generous Harry (1) second. But it is acceleration, the sprint a horse can produce off that cruise, that ties the story together: Manukau tops it at accelerationRank 1, with Scillato second and Rantan third. In a race this pressured, the horses that can quicken late are the ones the numbers reward, and Kingsley's top four are stacked with them.

Market and what to watch

The headline disagreement is Valilee: rated $4 but backed into a $3.30 quote this morning, a runner Kingsley is prepared to take on because he has to lead in a race full of speed. Scillato is the other price to note, rated $9 against a $14 market.

Watch the early sectionals: if Winning Proposal and Valilee force a genuine tempo up front, the closers led by Fierce and Manukau are set to be running over the top of them late.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.