Newcastle Race 8 Preview: Kingsley's Tips And Rated Prices
Newcastle Race 8 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
A sixteen-horse field, one million dollars in prize money and drizzle over a good track. Newcastle Race 8 at 4:45pm AEDT is the deepest puzzle on the card, and the pace map is what separates the top four from the rest.
The race
Sixteen runners, the rail in the true position, a good surface and light drizzle falling. The weights stretch from General Salute (2) at the top on 59kg down to a cluster of runners at 53kg, and that spread matters here because two of Kingsley's four selections are coming back sharply in weight. This race is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today, and there are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to it.
Today's featured race is free in full — one email, no card.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 45.22 per cent, which is a mid-range reading rather than a race likely to fall apart up front. Coal Crusher (4) maps to lead off a ppir of 1 — ppir measures predicted settling position, so a 1 means closest to the speed — with War Eternal and General Salute next in the order at 2 and 3. Golden Straand and Brave One fill out the forward half.
That shape has a clear consequence. Without genuine pressure, the deep closers are the ones with a problem, and the two runners at the back of the ppir order are Disneck on 16 and Infancy on 15. Sweynesday, on 10, is another settling in the back half. The runners who map inside the first six and still hold ratings worth respecting are the ones best placed to control this.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is She's An Artist (17), rated $6.50 against a $7.50 market this morning. She won at Warwick Farm doing the work outside the runner-up, took over near the 200m and was strong to the line, and she drops from 59.5kg to 53kg here, which is the single biggest weight turnaround in the field's story. She rolls forward again from a ppir of 9 and, on Kingsley's read, is fair value rather than an overbet favourite.
His second pick Infancy (7) is rated $6.50 with the market also at $6.50 this morning. She was closest on the line last start at long odds before being found with the thumps afterwards, drops to 54.5kg, is trained at the track and keeps a strong rider booking. The caveat is written into the map: on a ppir of 15 she needs the race to open up in front of her.
His third pick King Of Roseau (3) is rated $8.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. He was held up and then forced six wide last time and still kept finding, which flatters him well beyond the bare margin. Three wins from five starts at 1300m and third run back, he settles midfield on a ppir of 14 and simply needs clear air.
His fourth pick Brave One (12) is rated $11 against a $9.00 market this morning — the clearest disagreement among the four, with Kingsley rating him longer than the market. He was hooked five wide turning in last start, got within a length near the 200m and then flattened, which was no favours at all. Back to 53kg, two wins from two at the distance, and a ppir of 5 puts him in the right part of the race.
Won at Warwick Farm last start doing it the right way, sat outside the runner-up, took over at the 200m and was too strong. Rolls forward again here and comes back from 59.5kg to 53kg, which is a serious turnaround. Maher's got her humming and the market's been with her early. Top pick and looks fair odds to me.
Best acceleration in the field and she was closest on the line last start at big odds before being found with the thumps afterwards, forgive that one. Drops to 54.5kg, trained here at Newcastle and Collett's a strong booking. She does get a long way back and needs the race to open up, but she's the biggest threat to the top pick. Second pick.
Held up in traffic last time before being forced 6 wide and he still kept finding, a fair bit better than the bare result. 3 wins from 5 at 1300m and he's fitter for 3 runs back now. Settles midfield and needs clear air. Third pick.
Hooked 5 wide turning for home last start, got to within a length at the 200m then flattened out, no favours at all. Comes back to 53kg, 2 wins from 2 at the trip and Gibbons sticks. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and General Salute tops it at 103.799 ahead of She's An Artist on 102.612 and Infancy third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is headed by Sweynesday on 102.48 from King Of Roseau on 101.83 and Coal Crusher on 101.00. Cruising speed — the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race — favours Coal Crusher on 106.8 with She's An Artist second on 105.3. Acceleration, the turn of foot available late, belongs to Infancy on 108.309, with General Salute second on 103.371 and King Of Roseau third.
The screenshot line: She's An Artist is the only runner in the field ranked top two on both CAM and cruising speed, and she does it while dropping 6.5kg.
The market disagreements are worth noting in full — Brave One, Signor Tortoni, Chidiac and Accredited are all rated longer than their release quotes.
What to watch: whether Coal Crusher is allowed an uncontested lead, because an average tempo left alone up front makes life hard for Infancy from the back.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.