Seymour Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And The Pace Map
Seymour Race 6 preview: a very slow tempo reading, Kingsley's top four with rated prices against the release market, plus the CAM and CSW standouts.
Seymour's Race 6 is a $35,000 contest for ten runners jumping at 5:30pm AEDT, run under overcast skies with the rail out three metres for the entire circuit. The story here is tempo: there is almost nothing to pressure the lead, and that single fact reshapes the chances of nearly every horse in the field.
The race and the shape it takes
Ten go around, with the weight range running from Garnacho (1) and Kiss My Rock (2) on 60.5kg down to Our Paramour (11) on 54kg. It is a race with genuine depth at the top of the betting and a long tail beneath it, and the draw matters more than usual given how the speed maps.
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Pace: a Very Slow tempo and a 4.54% pressure reading
The tempo band is Very Slow and the pressure reading is just 4.54%, which is about as soft a sectional setup as you will see on a ten-horse card. PPIR measures where a runner is predicted to settle, with 1 being closest to the lead, and here it is Fiery Deal (7) on a PPIR of 1 who maps to lead. Behind her, Sarapo (4) at 2 and Catalona (10) at 3 are the only others tucked into the first three, with Dundonald (3) on 4 and Kiss My Rock (2) on 5 filling in from the inside gates.
That shape cuts both ways. Anything with a PPIR in the 7-10 range is being asked to run down a field that has barely drawn breath in front. Wolfess (8) on 8 and Lady Thinkabell (6) on 7 both sit in that bracket, and Earthly Crown (9) on 10 is the furthest back of all from barrier 10.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Sarapo (4), rated $3.20 against a $2.80 market this morning — so the market has already gone past where Kingsley has him. The form case is sound: held up on the turn last time and still working to the line, with this trip his own, and Damian Lane taking over for Chris Waller. The catch is the map. A PPIR of 2 reads forward, but Kingsley's read is that he gets back further than that suggests, and with next to no speed on paper, a slow-run race is the wrong setup for a horse that wants to be finishing off. Rated under the market, and he is comfortable watching.
His second pick Lady Thinkabell (6) is rated $7.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, and she is the one he nominates as the main danger. Second-up and fitter for it, she tops his combined ratings, has a serious turn of foot and is finally getting the ground she has been wanting. Barrier 8 means early work, and the placings-without-a-win profile is the knock.
His third pick Fiery Deal (7) is rated $8.50 against a $6.50 market this morning — a clear disagreement, with the market a good deal shorter. She has won at the trip and has trialled at Pakenham since her last run, and with the lead hers on the map and almost no early pressure, she gets the softest run in the race. Her finishing speed is what holds her under the two above her.
His fourth pick Wolfess (8) is rated $10 against an $8.50 market this morning. She is the quickest finisher in the race on these figures but maps to get a long way back into a crawl, so she needs the race to break open.
Held up on the turn last start and still battled on well to the line, and this is his trip. Lane takes over for Waller and he rates right on top of this lot. The worry is he maps to get a long way back and with virtually no speed in the race on paper, that's not the setup he wants. Top pick but he looks well found, happy to sit this one out.
Second-up and fitter for the run under her belt. Tops my combined ratings with a serious turn of foot, settles handy enough and the extra ground is what she's been crying out for. Barrier 8 means a bit of work early and she's collected plenty of placings without saluting. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
Settles just off the speed and with next to no early pressure on paper she gets a lovely time of it. Has won at this trip and had a trial at Pakenham since her last run. The finishing speed is what holds her back against the top 2. Third pick.
Quickest finisher in the race on my figures, but she maps to get a long way back and the tempo looks very slow, she'll need things to fall her way. Fourth pick.
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CAM is the composite ability rating, and Lady Thinkabell ranks first on it at 88.22, from Wolfess second at 87.39 and Garnacho third at 79.12. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Dundonald ranks first at 86.75, with Sarapo second at 85.67 and Lady Thinkabell third at 84.82. Dundonald also ranks first for cruising speed — the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race — at 84.3, ahead of Kiss My Rock at 81.8 and Fiery Deal at 79.8. Acceleration measures finishing burst, and Wolfess ranks first at 100.11 from Lady Thinkabell at 96.44 and Garnacho at 83.76.
The screenshot line: Lady Thinkabell is the only runner ranked top three on CAM, CSW and acceleration.
Garnacho is rated $5 against a $4 market this morning, with 60.5kg and barrier 9 the reasons Kingsley has others above him. Catalona is rated $14 against a $9.50 market this morning despite winning well 17 days ago.
What to watch: whether anything takes Fiery Deal on early, because if nobody does, the closers are racing for second.
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