Flemington Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips & Pace Map
Flemington Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW, cruise and accel standouts.
Ten go around at Flemington in Race 6 at 3:50pm AEDT for three million dollars in prize money, and the story is simple: the best horse in the race is also the one Kingsley wants least at the price.
The race
A field of ten, drizzle falling, the surface rated Good and the rail out nine metres for the entire circuit. Weights are tight — 58.5kg at the top for Mazu (2), Headwall (3) and Caballus (4), with the rest of the field on 56.5kg — so this is a contest decided by class and position rather than by the handicapper. The full card is rated free to view on theking.zone today.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 52.95 per cent — a genuine, honest speed rather than a sprint or a crawl. Mazu is the one runner with a ppir of 1, meaning he maps to lead, and he does it from barrier 10. Caballus is next closest in the run, with Charm Stone (8) from barrier 3 also mapping forward.
That shape matters most to the two market principals. Joliestar (7) sat back in eighth last time at Randwick, got clear air and simply ran out of track; today's map has her settling considerably closer, which is the single biggest change in her profile. Tempted (6) maps a touch further back again, and Headwall is further back still — he rates right up to the best of these but gives them a long start from his position in the run. At the tail, Skybird (9) and Point Barrow (11) both map well out the back, and on an average tempo neither gets the collapse they need.
Kingsley's selections
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race, so the four selections carry the weight.
His top pick is Joliestar, rated $4.20 against a $4.60 market this morning — the rare case where the rated price is shorter than the quote. Third-up, trained over the track, six wins from fourteen at the trip and James McDonald retaining the ride, she gets the forward map she lacked last start. Kingsley is content to take on the favourite with her.
That favourite is his second pick, Tempted, rated $2.20 against a $1.80 market this morning. Ten wins from fifteen starts and seven from ten at this distance; there is no fault in the mare, only in the price, and that gap is the entire reason she sits second rather than first.
His third pick is Caballus, rated $9.50 against an $11.00 market this morning. He rolled forward at Randwick and was only collared late, he settles on the speed here, he is two wins from four at Flemington and Blake Shinn takes the ride — value in the quote on Kingsley's numbers.
His fourth pick is Headwall, rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. He was held up when it mattered at Randwick and still finished strongly, and he backs up quickly here; the class is there, the position in the run is the question.
Settled back in 8th at Randwick, had clear air and just couldn't quite reel them in. Maps to sit a lot closer today and that's the difference. Third-up now, trained over this track, 6 wins from 14 at the trip and McDonald sticks. Market's looking the other way and I'm happy to be against the fav. Top pick and fair odds.
10 wins from 15 and 7 from 10 at the trip, tops the CSW and owns the best acceleration in the field by a clear margin. No knock on the mare at all, it's purely the price. She's well under my assessment and that's the reason she's second pick rather than top.
Rolled forward at Randwick and was only collared late, so he backs up in good order. Settles up on the speed, 2 wins from 4 at Flemington and Shinn takes over. Early money there and a bit of value in the quote. Third pick.
Held up when it mattered at Randwick and still found the line hard, now backs up quickly. Rates right up to these on CSW and has the class edge, but he gets a long way back from here. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-round measure of how good a horse is. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, what the horse has actually run with the weight and grade factored in. Cruising speed measures how fast a runner travels mid-race, and acceleration measures the turn of foot at the business end.
Tempted owns the lot where it counts: first on CAM at 106.006, first on CSW at 112.65 and first on acceleration at 113.326 — the last of those by a clear margin over the field. Joliestar is ranked second on CAM at 101.941 and third on CSW at 108.55, with Headwall second on CSW at 108.99 and third on acceleration at 104.049. The cruising-speed honours go elsewhere: Mazu tops that list at 108.1 with Caballus ranked second at 106.6, which is precisely why those two are the pair occupying the forward part of the map.
Mazu is the cautionary note. He was run down on the line here last time and rolls forward again, but he is an eight-year-old with 49 starts, he is ranked ninth on CAM and last of the ten on acceleration, and he is rated $61 against a $27 market this morning — a disagreement Kingsley makes no attempt to soften.
What to watch: whether Joliestar actually takes up the closer position the map gives her — if she does, the favourite has to produce that acceleration figure from further back than she would like.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.