Flemington Race 7 Preview: The Cup Tips And Rated Prices

A $10,200,000 Cup over two miles, a 99.87% pressure reading and a field deep enough to need 24 barriers. The shape here is the story, and it points hard at one type of horse.

The race

Flemington Race 7 jumps at 3:00pm AEDT on a Good surface, fine conditions, with the rail out three metres for the entire circuit. Twenty-three runners are rated on the card, stretching from Sons And Lovers (1) at the top of the weights with 57.5kg down to Shockletz (24) on 51kg, and the draw spans barrier 1 for Middle Earth (4) to barrier 24 for James J Braddock (18). Several of these horses have never been asked to run this far, which matters more than usual given the tempo projection.

The pace picture

The tempo band is Very Fast and the pressure reading is 99.87% — effectively a maximum-pressure race. In a two-mile Cup that is a brutal set of numbers for anything whose stamina is unproven. Point Of Law (20) is the only runner with a ppir of 1, meaning he maps to lead, with Royal Supremacy (7) next closest on a ppir of 2 and So You Are (16) third on 3. Future History (17) and Goodie Two Shoes (10) also map inside the first handful.

That leaves the stayers who settle back with a genuine target. Shockletz (24) maps mid-to-back on a ppir of 9 and, as Kingsley reads it, a race run at this speed is exactly where a strong-finishing Flemington specialist wants to be. At the other end, Zahrann (15) on a ppir of 20, Strictly Business (21) on 19 and Knight's Choice (3) on 17 give themselves an enormous amount to do from the rear.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Hopewell Rock (12), the progressive runner of the race with just 10 starts, three wins and five placings, and a first-up record of a win and two thirds from three. It is his Australian debut, Zac Lloyd takes the ride, and Kingsley has him rated $4.80 against a $7.00 market this morning — and he notes the horse has been heavily backed in the past 24 hours. He is also playing 12, 20 and 24 hard in the quinellas.

His second pick is Point Of Law (20), a four-year-old with three wins from five who took charge turning for home at Geelong and kept finding when challenged. With 53kg, Ethan Brown aboard and the only ppir of 1 in the field, he is rated $6.00 against an $8.50 market this morning.

His third pick is Shockletz (24), who has three wins and two placings from nine at Flemington, gets in on 51kg and ran on strongly for second over the course last start with the shape against her. Rated $8.00 against a $10.00 market this morning.

His fourth pick is Trustyourinstinct (2), nine wins from 25 and a winner at the trip, with J B Mc Donald booked. The negatives are no lead-up run here and barrier 18, and the market has already shortened him past Kingsley's number: rated $13.00 against a $9.00 market this morning.

All three of Hopewell Rock, Point Of Law and Shockletz carry an official TKZ back tip.

The metrics

CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Enfjaar (6) tops the field on 102.45, ahead of Point Of Law on 102.38 and Future History on 102.34. Kizlyar (19) is fourth-ranked on 102.24 and So You Are fifth on 102.18. The catch with Enfjaar is distance: he has never gone past 2400m and has to go forward into this tempo.

Cruising speed measures the pace a horse can sustain without being asked, and Point Of Law is the clear leader on 114.6, with So You Are second on 113.1 and Enfjaar third on 111.1. Goodie Two Shoes ranks fourth on 106.1. Shockletz is the counterpoint — she ranks 19th on CSW at 94.70 and 18th on cruising at 94.60, so the case for her is the weight, the track record and the race shape rather than the time figures.

Where the market sits

The disagreements are clean ones. Kingsley is shorter than the market on all three official tips and longer than the market on Trustyourinstinct, Knight's Choice (rated $151.00 against a $51.00 market this morning) and Strictly Business (rated $251.00 against a $71.00 market this morning).

Watch the first 600m: if Point Of Law gets to the front unchallenged, the 99.87% pressure reading is the whole race.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.