Randwick Race 8 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Map

Sixteen runners, ten million dollars on the line and a tempo reading that says this will be run at a serious clip. Randwick Race 8 jumps at 4:45pm AEDT and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.

The race

Drizzle over a Good surface, the rail in the True position, and a field that stretches from genuine class horses down to a handful that look out of their depth on the numbers. The weights are compressed — most of the field at 57.5kg, with Amazing Journey a kilo under that and Sheza Alibi, Apocalyptic and Within The Law all on 55.5kg. Barriers matter in a field this size: Platinum Pantheon has drawn one, Within The Law two, while Apocalyptic (16), Estremo (15) and Skyhook (14) have been handed the carpark.

The pace picture

The tempo band is Fast with a pressure reading of 75.69 per cent, which is high-end and means the leaders will be under real duress rather than getting a soft time of it. Regal Award (4) maps to lead off barrier three — ppir measures predicted settling position, where 1 is closest to the lead — but he is the horse the shape hurts most: he led and surrendered late at Caulfield, and there is more speed engaged here than he met that day. Beiwacht sits next on the pace reading, with Attica, Autumn Boy, Sheza Alibi and Skyhook all mapping within striking range.

The flipside is a long tail of swoopers. Within The Law, Platinum Pantheon, Estremo and Rivellino all map a long way back, and while a fast tempo in theory brings them into it, most of them don't have the ratings to make the run count. The horse the shape genuinely suits is Sheza Alibi, who should be winding up out of midfield into a contested lead.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Beiwacht (1), rated $5.50 against a $7.50 market this morning — the clearest overlay on his card. He rolled forward and led last start when the shape of the race was against him and was only collared inside the final 50m, Nash Rawiller stays aboard, and he brings the class edge. He also carries the Official Tip in this race.

His second pick is Sheza Alibi (16), rated $1.85 against a $1.65 market this morning — and that is Kingsley saying the favourite is short enough. On raw ability she is the one to beat: eight wins from 13, beaten a whisker over 2000m last start and now dropping sharply in trip, with Luke Nolen aboard from gate five.

His third pick is Amazing Journey (15), rated $26 against a $23 market this morning. She resumes off three trials, the latest a second at Rosehill, with five wins from 11, a stable that knows the way here and a campaign built around this race. Barrier 13 is the obstacle.

His fourth pick is Skyhook (2), rated $17 against a $13 market this morning, which is the wrong way round for Kingsley's liking. He was beaten a head here last start sitting handy and kept finding, with six wins from 16, but gate 14 and a tight price temper the case.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Sheza Alibi tops the field on it at 109.586, clear of Within The Law in second on 105.849. CSW blends class, speed and weight into a time figure: Skyhook rates best in the field at 108.02, with Sheza Alibi next on 105.97 and Beiwacht third on 103.52.

Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without being asked, and Beiwacht leads the field at 111.7 from Regal Award on 110.2 — in a fast-run race that is the number that lets him sit where he wants. Acceleration measures the turn of foot at the business end, and Sheza Alibi's 120.721 is the standout by a clear margin from Within The Law on 114.307 and Platinum Pantheon on 107.002.

The one-line version: the best cruising speed in the field against the best acceleration in the field, with a high-pressure tempo deciding which trait gets paid.

What to watch: how hard Regal Award is pressed early — if that pressure reading holds up, Sheza Alibi's finish becomes the race.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.