Beaumont Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace Map And Tips

A 12-horse sprint at Beaumont on a true rail and a Good surface, with an average tempo reading and a field where Kingsley's own rated prices sit longer than the market on almost every runner that matters.

The race

Race 6 at Beaumont jumps at 4:50pm AEDT for $30,000, 12 runners, fine weather, surface rated G and the rail in the True position. It is a 1200m assignment, and the weights tell part of the story straight away: Starry Jack (1) carries 63kg at the top, Ring My Bell (14) and Raised By Wolves (16) get in on 55kg at the bottom.

The honest summary is that this is a competitive, moderately priced race rather than a standout one. Kingsley's own read on the form is that nothing here is any sort of price, and his rated figures back that up — his top-rated runner is rated $5.50 while the market had him at $5.00 this morning.

The pace picture

The tempo band is Average with a pressure reading of 60.69 per cent — firm enough that the leaders will have to work, not so hot that the race falls apart up front.

Langlo Crossing (3) maps to lead, the only runner in the field with a ppir of 1, and he does it from barrier 5 after rolling forward and only tiring late over the same trip last start, which was a peak rating for him. Starry Jack sits next closest on ppir 2 from barrier 2, with Fancy Shoulder (6) on ppir 3 and Mellencamp (2) on ppir 4 from the inside gate.

The shape is less kind at the other end. Laizabout (7) has the highest ppir in the race at 12, meaning he settles furthest back; He'sthechief (15) is ppir 9 out of barrier 12, Raised By Wolves ppir 10 and Ring My Bell ppir 11. With an average tempo rather than a genuinely fast one, those closers need the leaders to overcook it.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Fancy Shoulder (6), backing up just two days after finishing second at the Gold Coast and holding her form through the preparation. The quick turnaround is not a concern in his read — she is the horse he rates highest in the race. She is rated $5.50 against a $5.00 market this morning, so the market is marginally shorter than his assessment.

His second pick Broken Wings (10) settles handy on ppir 5 and was one-paced last start without going wrong anywhere. Third run back, 10 days between runs, and rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning.

His third pick He'sthechief (15) is the metrics horse. The rider is an upgrade, but he did not finish off last time and maps to come from the rear out of the widest gate. The price gap is the loudest in the race: rated $18 against an $11 market this morning.

His fourth pick Devilish Sun (8) missed the kick last start and still ran on hard as the widest runner in the straight. He is fitter for the first-up run, but barrier 11 of 12 means another start conceded. Rated $14 against a $13 market this morning.

There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, the single-number measure of a horse's overall quality. He'sthechief tops it at 80.32 (camRank 1), from Laizabout at 78.46 and Raised By Wolves at 76.19.

CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which prices a horse's best times against the class and weight it carried. Mellencamp leads that list at 80.54 (cswRank 1), with Phoenix Power (13) second at 79.53 and Laizabout third at 77.90. Mellencamp's problem is circumstance rather than ability: resuming off nearly six months, no wins from seven first-up runs, and the trip short of what he wants.

Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race. Fancy Shoulder heads it at 81.6, from Langlo Crossing at 80.1 and Starry Jack at 78.1 — the top three on that metric are also three of the four closest to the pace, which is why the front end looks hard to run down here.

Acceleration measures the sharpness of the turn of foot. He'sthechief ranks first at 92.01, Laizabout second at 91.45, Raised By Wolves third at 85.43. Every one of them settles outside the first eight.

Where the market sits

Langlo Crossing is rated $5 against a $4.20 market this morning — shorter than Kingsley's number for a horse at only his seventh career start. Laizabout is rated $6.50 against a $5.50 market, attractive on CAM and acceleration but 0 from 4 at the trip and mapped last.

Watch the first 400m: if Langlo Crossing and Fancy Shoulder settle into a rhythm up front rather than fighting each other, the acceleration horses never get the race they need.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.