Wyong Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And The Pace Map
Wyong Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the Average tempo map and the CAM, CSW and cruising-speed standouts.
Wyong's Race 6 at 4:20pm AEDT is a $45,000 affair for 11 runners, and it is a race full of unexposed form — four first starters, several second-uppers, and a market that has already made its mind up. The full rated card is free to view on theking.zone today.
The race
Conditions are straightforward: fine weather, a Good surface, the rail out three metres for the entire circuit. That is a track configuration that rewards clean running rather than luck, which matters in a field this green.
The make-up of the race is the story. Think And Act (2), Regal Profit (7), Veranders (8) and Sakurious (10) are all having their first start, so the ratings columns are blank for them and the trial work and the betting have to do the talking. The rest have had a look at it — Don't Doubt Darcy (3) just the one run, Freshman (6), Intense Dream (9), Too Delicious (11), Classy Go Go (13) and Jammed (18) all carrying a debut or a campaign behind them. Weights run from Think And Act's 59kg down to 55kg for a cluster of the lighter-weighted runners.
No value right now — no runner's Bullet Price is shorter than its live price.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 45.22 per cent — a moderate, honest speed rather than a race that falls apart up front. Of the runners with a predicted position, Intense Dream maps to lead off a ppir of 1, which is notable given he drew the outside gate of the 11. Too Delicious sits next closest at a ppir of 2 after rolling forward on debut, with Freshman third in the order at 3 and Classy Go Go fourth at 4.
The flip side is where the money is. Don't Doubt Darcy has the highest ppir of the rated runners at 7, meaning he settles furthest back of that group and needs the tempo to be genuine. Busy Bee (4) is next worst placed at 6, which blunts the one weapon he owns. On a 45.22 per cent pressure reading, neither gets the collapsing speed that a back-marker ideally wants.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Don't Doubt Darcy (3), rated $4.20 against a $3.90 market this morning — the market is shorter than the rating, which is the theme of the whole race. He won his Warwick Farm trial impressively and is only one start into his career with obvious scope.
His second pick is Regal Profit (7), rated $3.20 against a $2.30 market this morning. A first starter with a Warwick Farm trial win, a strong rider engaged and plenty of trial work in the bank — but the market has already taken every cent of value out of him.
His third pick is Intense Dream (9), rated $6.50 against a $5.00 market this morning. He led and hung badly on debut, so there is something to forgive, he should be fitter and he picks up a quality hoop, though barrier 11 is a complication.
His fourth pick is Sakurious (10), rated $8.00 against a $6.50 market this morning. Another first starter, trialled well at Kembla, and gate one is a genuine help in a field of this type.
The honest summary from Kingsley is that all four rated prices sit longer than the market — there is no edge anywhere in this race, and he is watching rather than playing. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in the race.
Won his trial at Warwick Farm and I loved the look of it. Rates top on CSW, lightly raced with plenty of upside, and he's only had the 1 start. Trouble is the market has him shorter than my price and there's no edge anywhere in this race. Top pick on the numbers, but happy to sit this one out.
First Starter who won the trial at Warwick Farm and I loved the way it went about it, with a gun rider aboard. Plenty of trial work behind it too. Second pick, but the market's already all over it and there's nothing on offer at the price in this race. Happy to watch.
First Starter, trialled well at Kembla and the 1 gate is a help. Fourth pick in a race I'm watching, not betting.
First Starter that won a trial at Kembla, but the betting says it's not ready to salute. Not for me.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's quality, and Don't Doubt Darcy tops it at 67.894 — a whisker clear of Busy Bee's 67.7817. He also leads CSW, which blends class, speed and weight into a time rating, at 81.11, with Freshman second on 71.18 despite a modest debut.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Intense Dream owns it at 73.1, ahead of Too Delicious on 71.6 — consistent with the pair mapping closest to the lead. Acceleration, the finishing-burst figure, belongs to Busy Bee at 78.4809, with Don't Doubt Darcy second on 73.5091. At the other end, Freshman's 4.25836 is the worst finishing speed in the field.
What to watch: whether Intense Dream can use that field-best cruising speed of 73.1 to cross from the outside gate and actually hold the front.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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