Hawkesbury Race 6 Preview: Fast Tempo, Rated Prices, Tips
Hawkesbury race 6 preview: a fast tempo at 81.75% pressure, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, plus the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
A seven-horse field over $42,000 at Hawkesbury, and the pace projection says this one is set up for something finishing hard. The question is whether the horse who maps closest to the lead is also good enough to withstand it.
The race
Hawkesbury Race 6 jumps at 4:20pm AEDT on Tuesday 27 October, $42,000 in prize money, seven runners on a Good surface under an overcast sky. The rail is out five metres from the 1100m to the 450m and true for the remainder, so the shortest way around still rewards anyone with a sit. Weights range from Duke Of Arrakis up top at 60.5kg down to Jolly Good Fellow on the minimum 55kg. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race, so the ratings do the talking.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 81.75% — a genuinely contested early speed rather than a soft lead. Duke Of Arrakis (1) is the one who maps to lead, with a ppir of 1, the lowest predicted running position in the field, and Pentagon (4) at ppir 2 rolls forward alongside him from barrier four. Fitzclarence (6) is next at ppir 3, then Jolly Good Fellow (10) at ppir 4.
Behind them sit the horses this shape is built for. Chappy (2) maps at ppir 5, Superata (3) at ppir 6 and Blow In (5) at ppir 7 — the one who gets back furthest of all. With 81.75% pressure on, the back half of the field is where the race should be won from, and Superata drawing barrier one means he can save ground while it unfolds in front of him.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Duke Of Arrakis (1), third-up and settling handy, which is precisely where the Waterhouse and Bott galloper wants to be. Kingsley rates him $3.60 against a $3.10 market this morning — so on his own numbers the market has gone a touch too far, and he says as much: well found at the quote. The Rosehill run is worth forgiving, with the horse under pressure a long way from home in a race that fell to the closers.
His second pick Blow In (5) is the one he nominates as the biggest danger. Rated $8.50 against a $7.50 market this morning, the eight-year-old brings five wins from 28 starts at 1400m, won just over a month ago, and was three wide without cover when third last time — a better run than the placing suggests. The only hesitation is the mileage on the legs.
His third pick Superata (3) gets right back but owns the field's best finishing burst, and a fast tempo is exactly the invitation he needs. Two wins from six at the distance, a win only a month ago and barrier one. Kingsley rates him $4.40 against a $3.90 market this morning.
His fourth pick Fitzclarence (6) is only having his fifth start, is up to his right trip at 1400m, has won at this track and is trained here. Rated $7.00 against a $5.00 market this morning, that is the widest rated-to-market gap among the four.
One he is happy to take on: Chappy (2), rated $8.50 against a $6.00 market this morning, up 4kg and with the weakest finishing numbers in the race.
Third-up now and settles handy, which is where I want him. Rates the best of these on the combined numbers and only one in the field has more finishing speed. Forget the Rosehill run, he was under pressure a long way out and that race fell to the swoopers. Early money there as well. Top pick, though he looks well found at the quote.
Rates on top on CSW, won just over a month back and was caught 3 wide without cover when 3rd last start, better than the bare result reads. 5 wins from 28 at 1400m, so no query about the trip, and he gets back where the tempo should help. The 8yo legs are the only hesitation. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
Gets right back but owns the best finishing burst in the field, and with the speed on up front on paper that's exactly the setup he wants. 2 wins from 6 at the trip and saluted only a month ago. Barrier 1 is a help. Third pick.
Swung wide at Kembla and worked home nicely without ever threatening. Up to 1400m is the right trip, he's trained here and has won at the track, and the CSW rating sits right near the top. Only his 5th start, so there's upside. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Duke Of Arrakis tops it with a camRank of 1 on 79.77, ahead of Superata (camRank 2, 77.89) and Fitzclarence (camRank 3, 76.72). CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Blow In leads the field at cswRank 1 on 86.29, with Fitzclarence second at 85.24 and Superata third at 84.54.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Pentagon ranks first on 78.70 with Duke Of Arrakis second on 77.20 — consistent with the pair who map forward. Acceleration measures the late burst, and Superata is clearly the best in the field at accelerationRank 1 on 86.58, with Duke Of Arrakis second on 82.33 and Blow In third on 82.28. Chappy sits last on that measure at -3.93.
What to watch: whether Duke Of Arrakis can control an 81.75% pressure tempo from the front, because if he cannot, Superata's field-best acceleration lands right on top of it.
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