Albury Race 6 Preview: Samaka Rated The One To Run Down
Albury Race 6 preview with Kingsley's top four, rated prices and the pace map — Samaka tops CAM, CSW and acceleration in a 13-horse sprint at 5:55pm.
Thirteen go around in Albury's $50,000 Race 6 at 5:55pm AEDT, a 1175m sprint on a Good track with the rail out three metres from the 1000m to the 400m. It is a race split cleanly down the middle: a handful of proven, metric-backed types against four runners with no race-day figures at all.
The race and the shape of the field
Partly cloudy conditions, a Good surface and a true rail for the bulk of the circuit mean no excuses from the track. The field mixes genuine first starters — Accolades (4) from barrier one, Bronte Pier (6) and Prince Of Glam (7) — with a group of lightly raced and exposed sprinters, several of whom are being asked questions they have not been asked before. Scorpion (14) is a case in point: the numbers like him, the trip does not, with 1175m well short of the distance he is crying out for.
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Pace: average tempo, 60.69% pressure
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 60.69%, so this is a solid but not frantic race shape — enough speed to make the leaders earn it, not enough to set the race up for the deep closers. Magic Royale (11) maps to lead from barrier three, with Night Meeting (17) the next closest to the pace off a ppir of 2 and Pure Warrior (13) third in the queue. Samaka (2) settles handy with a ppir of 4, which matters given barrier 13 will cost him some early work.
That shape cuts against the swoopers. Kutina Bay (10) has the second-best acceleration figure in the race but maps to get well back on a ppir of 10, and an average tempo rarely collapses enough to rescue a horse from there. Brutal To The Max (8) is in the same boat at ppir 8. He's Our Boy (1) also settles out the back and has had his chance in weaker company.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Samaka (2), rated $4.20 against a $3.90 market this morning — so the market is marginally shorter than the rating, which is as close to agreement as this card gets. He hit the line hard at Newcastle last time after being pushed wide and kept finding when dropping out would have been easy. He settles handy, holds a class edge and is the one the others have to run down.
His second pick is Magic Royale (11), rated $11 against a $9.50 market this morning — Kingsley's number is the longer of the two. She missed the jump last start and still rolled forward to take them on outside the leader at Wodonga, battling away for second. Tougher race, but she is on the speed again and the trip suits. The nose roll goes on.
His third pick is Big Storm (15), rated $6 against a $5.00 market this morning. He missed the start at Bendigo and still ran on soundly into third; lightly raced and up from 1000m, the distance reads spot on. His fourth pick is Prince Of Glam (7), rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning, a first starter who won his Wodonga trial with three trials in the bank and Brodie Loy aboard.
There are no official tips flagged in this race — no Golden Bullet, no Good Roughie.
Hit the line hard at Newcastle last time after being pushed wide, kept coming when it would've been easy to drop out. Best acceleration in the field by a street and top-rated on CSW. Settles handy again and has the class edge over these. Barrier 13 means a bit of early work, but he's the one they all have to run down. Top pick.
Missed the jump last start and still rolled forward to take them on outside the leader, battling away for 2nd at Wodonga. Tougher race today but she's on the speed again and this trip is right in her wheelhouse. Nose roll goes on. Second pick and the main one chasing the top selection.
Missed the start at Bendigo and still ran on soundly into 3rd. Lightly raced, up in trip from 1000m and the distance looks spot on for him. Third pick.
First Starter who won his trial at Wodonga, and Loy taking the ride is a pointer, he's a gun rider. 3 trials leading in so the education's been done. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the single number for overall quality. Samaka tops it at 93.18, a long way clear with Kutina Bay second-ranked and Scorpion third. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and Samaka again leads on 82.93 from Scorpion (79.59) and Snakeunderfoot (3) on 78.67.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and that is Night Meeting's strength — top-ranked at 85.1, ahead of Magic Royale on 80.6 and Samaka on 79.6. Acceleration measures the turn of foot off that cruise, and it is the most lopsided column on the page: Samaka posts 108.962, ranked first, with Kutina Bay second on 72.5653 and Big Storm third on 68.0321. Night Meeting sits last of the rated runners at 44.2357, which is the catch for a horse rolling forward first-up off 200 days.
The screenshot line: Samaka is top-ranked on CAM, CSW and acceleration, and his acceleration figure is more than 36 points clear of the next best.
Where Kingsley and the market part company is further down. Snakeunderfoot is rated $15 against a $9.50 market this morning despite the second-worst acceleration ranking of the rated runners, and Kutina Bay is rated $14 against a $9.50 market this morning off a back-of-the-field map at a trip she has not tried.
Watch the first 400m: if Magic Royale gets an uncontested lead, the finish becomes about whether Samaka's acceleration arrives in time.
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