Randwick Race 8 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Top Four
Randwick race 8 preview: a very fast mile, 16 runners and Kingsley's rated prices, with his top pick Attica an Official TKZ Tip at rated $4.40.
Sixteen runners, $1,500,000 on the line and a pressure reading of 90.45 per cent. Randwick's Race 8 shapes as a race where the tempo decides it, and Kingsley's top pick is drawn to be the beneficiary.
The race
Race 8 at Randwick jumps at 4:10pm AEST on Saturday 3 October, worth $1,500,000, with 16 accepted. It is drizzling, the surface is rated Good and the rail is in the True position. The weights run from Ceolwulf (1) at 59kg down to a cluster of 50kg lightweights, and the spread of ability through the field is wide: genuine group-class form up top, a handful of last-start Newcastle winners stepping into a far tougher assignment, and one unbeaten mare taking a significant leap in grade.
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The pace picture
The tempo band here is Very Fast, with pressure at 90.45 per cent. That is the single most important number on the page. Perfumist (12) is the only runner with a ppir of 1 — the metric that predicts settling position, where 1 means closest to the lead — so she maps to lead, and she has to do it from barrier 14. Fully Lit sits next closest on a ppir of 2 after getting his own way in front last time at Newcastle, with Autumn Boy on 3 from the inside gate and Matcha Latte on 4, a horse that dictated terms last start and was still run down.
That is four horses with forward intentions and nobody obviously conceding. The flip side is the back half of the field: Ceolwulf maps a long way out of it on a ppir of 12, God's Window further back again on 15, with Encap on 14 and Militarize, from barrier 16, on 13. In a mile run this hard, being midfield rather than back-of-the-pack is the sweet spot, and that is precisely where Attica (8) lands on a ppir of 7.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Attica (8), rated $4.40 against a $5.50 market this morning, and it carries an Official TKZ Tip. The case is straightforward: he kept finding at Randwick last start and now meets these 6.5kg better off, he has trialled since at Rosehill, he is third-up, he is two wins from five at the track and McEvoy stays aboard. A horse that finishes off, settling midfield, into a mile run at this tempo is the shape you want.
His second pick Well Written (6) is seven from seven and unbeaten, which can't be dismissed, but Ellerslie form into this grade is a step up and she settles handy — directly in the firing line if the speed is as hot as it maps. She is rated $4.80 against a $4.60 market, so Kingsley is marginally against the market price there.
His third pick Perfumist (12) bolted in by two and a half lengths at Newcastle and gets a big weight drop, but she rolls forward from barrier 14 into the pressure and is zero from four second-up. She is rated $23 against a $17 market this morning — a clear disagreement, and Kingsley is the longer of the two.
His fourth pick Autumn Boy (3) ran second over the mile at Flemington, drops 3kg, draws the inside and gets McDonald third-up. The objection is purely price: rated $4.60 against a $3.90 market this morning, which is short enough.
Kept finding at Randwick last start and now gets in 6.5kg better off. Trialled nicely at Rosehill since and he's third-up at exactly the right time. Settles midfield and with the speed on paper looking red hot over the mile, this sets up beautifully for a horse that finishes off. 2 wins from 5 at the track, McEvoy sticks. I'm keen and it's an Official TKZ Tip.
7 from 7 and still unbeaten, which demands respect, but this is a whole different grade to Ellerslie. Lloyd takes over second-up and the market's been with her. The worry is she settles handy and the speed on paper is red hot over the mile, she'll be right in the firing line. Second pick and the biggest threat to the tip.
Bolted in by 2.5 lengths at Newcastle and the big weight drop helps. Worry is she rolls forward from barrier 14 into what shapes as a very fast run mile, and she's 0 from 4 second-up. Third pick.
Ran 2nd over the mile at Flemington last start and drops 3kg for this. McDonald takes over, drawn the inside gate and he's third-up now with the race fitness. Only knock is the market has already found him, short enough for mine. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Ceolwulf tops it at 107.432, from God's Window second on 104.037 and Idle Flyer third on 103.158. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, also has Ceolwulf clear on 109.53, with Autumn Boy second on 103.83 and Attica third on 102.83. Acceleration measures the turn of foot, and it is the same name again — Ceolwulf first at 120.567, God's Window second at 114.882, Idle Flyer third at 107.423.
The problem is that the top three on acceleration all map at the tail: Ceolwulf on a ppir of 12 under 59kg, God's Window on 15 with the ratings suggesting he wants further, Idle Flyer on 8 from barrier 15 of 16. Cruising speed, the sustainable tempo a horse can hold, belongs to the leaders — Fully Lit first at 108.5, Perfumist second at 107.7, Matcha Latte third at 105.7. Attica ranks fifth there at 100.7, which is enough to be in touch without doing the work. Well Written has no ratings figures in this card, so she is judged on the race shape alone.
What to watch: whether Perfumist crosses from barrier 14 cheaply or has to burn to do it — that one move sets the tempo the whole race hangs on.
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