Bendigo Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Bendigo Race 7 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, pace map and CAM, CSW, cruise and accel standouts.
Twelve go around for $100,000 at Bendigo in Race 7, jumping at 4:55pm AEDT, and the rated card has a clear disagreement with the morning market at the top of it.
The race
Partly cloudy, a Good surface and the rail out five metres the entire circuit — nothing in the conditions to distort things. It is a mile assignment, which matters: both Untapped (4) and Our Justify (13) are tackling 1600m for the first time, and that single fact shapes a chunk of the analysis below. The weights spread from Eishaa (3) at 61.5kg down to Koyuga Rip (18) at 56kg, so the lightweights are getting a genuine concession.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent — a touch above an even split, no runaway speed duel, no crawl. In practice that means the race is unlikely to collapse in behind a suicidal tempo, and the horses who can sit in the first half of the field get to dictate rather than chase.
Kastun Star (5) maps to lead on a ppir of 1 — ppir is the predicted in-run position, where 1 means settling closest to the pace. Almairac (14) is next closest at 2, then Glenfinnan (12) and Super Paradise (6), with Koyuga Rip rolling forward from barrier one at 5. The shape is far less kind at the other end. Our Justify has the highest ppir in the field at 12, Crown Crusher (15) is 11 and Eishaa 10 from barrier 12 — all three are giving the leaders a start and need the tempo to be honest rather than average.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Almairac (14), and this is where the card and the market part company. Kingsley rates him $4.80 against an $8.00 market this morning — the market has him at roughly double his assessed price. The case is straightforward: he comes back in trip from close to 2000m to a distance that suits, he rates near the top on class-speed-weight, Ethan Brown taking the ride is a clear upgrade, and he maps to park just off the leader. He is also the Golden Bullet official tip in this race. There is no Good Roughie nominated.
His second pick is Our Justify (13), who won here last start after driving through along the fence and holding her form to the line. The reservation is price, not ability: rated $2.60 against a $2.30 market this morning, which is short enough for a mare stepping up to the mile for the first time and settling last on the pace map. Her finishing speed is the argument that she runs the trip out.
His third pick, Koyuga Rip (18), also won at this track last start despite being caught wide and further back than ideal. Barrier one lets him roll forward this time, he is well in at the weights and the stable trains on the course. Rated $15 against a $9.50 market this morning — a clear negative on price.
His fourth pick, Eishaa (3), has four wins from five starts at Bendigo and five from eight at the trip, and saluted here a fortnight ago. Barrier 12 is the handbrake, and he will be winding up from well back. Rated $13 against a $9.00 market this morning.
Back in trip from nearly 2000m and this is where I want him. Rates right up there on CSW with a clear class edge on these, and Ethan Brown taking over is a serious upgrade on the rider. Market has him longer than my own price too. Golden Bullet, MAX BET......Lets Go !!
Won here last start, drove through on the fence and was strong to the line. Steps up to 1600m for the 1st time but she's got the finishing speed to run the trip out, and she settles midfield with one crack at them. Second pick, just a bit skinny at the quote for mine.
Won here last start despite being caught wide and ending up further back than they wanted, plenty to like about that. Rolls forward from barrier 1 today, gets in nicely at the weights and the stable trains on the track. Third pick.
4 wins from 5 at this track and 5 from 8 at the trip, he knows his way around Bendigo. Best acceleration in the field as well, and he was saluting here only a fortnight ago. Barrier 12 means he gives them a start and he'll be winding up from well back, which is the one thing holding me. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
Four numbers carry the card. CAM is the composite ability rating, and Untapped ranks first on it at 89.85, with Eishaa second and Our Justify third. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Corona Lad (17) tops it at 89.26 — though at eight years old, wanting further and mapping to get well back, the number is doing more work than the profile. Almairac ranks second on CSW at 88.88, which is the spine of the top selection.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Koyuga Rip leads the field at 89.7, with Kastun Star second. Acceleration measures the turn of foot off that cruise, and Eishaa is the best in the race at 98.66, with Untapped second and Our Justify third.
Where the market sits
The three runners the card wants to oppose are Untapped, rated $14 against a $9.00 market this morning and stepping to a trip everything about him says is too long, Kastun Star, rated $26 against an $11.00 market with the weakest finishing speed of the main players, and Dubai Watch (8), rated $20 against a $14.00 market, resuming off 81 days with no win from three fresh.
What to watch: whether Almairac can hold the slot outside the leader from barrier six — if he does, the back markers need the tempo to lift.
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