Gosford Race 6 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices & Pace
Gosford Race 6 preview: a very fast tempo, Skyrise on top of the numbers and where Kingsley's rated prices split from the market.
A ten-horse turf sprint at Gosford where the clock rating and the pace map pull in different directions, and five first-starters muddy the read. Here is how it sets up.
The race
Gosford Race 6 jumps at 3:35pm AEST for $45,000, run on a fine day over a turf surface with the rail out four metres from the 1100m to the winning post and true the rest of the way. It is a compact field of ten, and half of them are debut runners with nothing to go on beyond trials. That leaves a small group of exposed form horses to build the story around, and a very open puzzle where Kingsley makes clear there is no edge to chase.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure figure of 90.4 per cent, so expect this run hard and honest up front. Ppir measures where a runner settles, with 1 sitting closest to the lead. Courage'n'power (15) has the lowest figure in the field at 2 from barrier one and maps to be right in the firing line. The concern is his own comment: he led and weakened badly last start, so a hot tempo does him no favours.
Behind that, the shape hurts the two runners with the sharpest late legs. Star Of Indigo (6) has a ppir of 11, drawn off the track and likely to end up a long way back three wide with no cover, while Street Lyric (13) sits on 10. A very fast tempo can set a race up for closers, but only if they are not spotting the leaders that far and doing it that hard. Skyrise (12) is the exception among the market fancies, mapping to sit handy one out with cover on a ppir of 8.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Skyrise (12), rated $4.20 against a $3.90 market this morning. He is the best-rated in the field on the numbers, maps for every chance from a lovely spot, and gets a genuine upgrade with Tommy Berry taking over in the saddle. Lightly raced with upside.
His second pick is Star Of Indigo (6), rated $7 and a $7 market this morning, the two figures in agreement. He owns the best acceleration in the field by a clear margin and only just went down last start after hitting the line hard, with winkers going on. The map is the knock, drawn wide and likely caught deep without cover.
His third pick is Triple Seven (9), rated $13 against an $11 market this morning. Blinkers come off, he steps back in trip and is lightly raced second-up after taking a sit last time. His fourth pick is Retrofit (8), rated $14 against a $12 market, a first-starter who impressed at the trial but has plenty to prove on debut.
Kingsley is upfront that this is a watching race for him with no edge, and he is happy to take on the shorter-priced Street Lyric (13), rated $9 against a much firmer $5 market this morning. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
Best rated in the field and maps to sit handy one out with cover, so gets every chance from a lovely spot. Berry's a big booking and takes over, that's a genuine upgrade in the saddle. Lightly raced with upside. Top pick on the numbers, but there's no edge in this race for mine, happy to sit it out.
Best acceleration in the field by a fair margin, and only just went down last start after hitting the line hard. Winkers go on. Only knock is the map, drawn off the track and looks like getting a long way back three wide with no cover, which makes it tricky. Second pick, but no edge to chase in this one and happy enough to watch.
Blinkers come off and back in trip from the 1175m. Lightly raced, second-up and took a sit last start. Third pick in a race with no edge for mine.
First Starter. Loved the trial, looked sharp doing it. Bit of upside but plenty to prove first-up in a race I'm happy to watch. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is Kingsley's composite ability figure. Street Lyric tops it at camRank 1 on 72.75, from Star Of Indigo at 2 and Skyrise at 3. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and here Skyrise leads at cswRank 1 on 71.21, with Star Of Indigo second and Triple Seven third. Cruising speed measures how easily a horse travels, and Street Lyric is best again at cruisingRank 1 on 70.5, ahead of Triple Seven at 67. Acceleration captures the change of gear, and Star Of Indigo owns it at accelerationRank 1 on 83.03, with Skyrise second and Street Lyric third. The pattern is clear: the raw ratings favour the two horses the map most compromises.
What to watch: whether Star Of Indigo's field-best acceleration can overcome that wide, coverless run, or whether Skyrise's handy trip and Berry booking simply prove decisive.
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