Caulfield Race 7 Preview: Cosmic Crusader The Golden Bullet
Caulfield Race 7 preview: slow tempo, 16% pressure, plus Kingsley's rated prices on Cosmic Crusader, Lindermann, Birdman and Kingswood.
Eight runners, a million dollars and a tempo reading that says almost nobody wants to lead. Caulfield's Race 7 at 3:35pm AEST is the race of the day on The King Zone, and it is free to view fully rated.
The race
Fine weather, a Good surface and the rail out seven metres for the entire circuit. Eight go around, every one of them carrying 59kg, so the weights tell you nothing and the shape tells you everything. Chris Waller holds three of the eight in Lindermann, Buckaroo and Birdman, with Cosmic Crusader, Kingswood, Pinstriped, Middle Earth and Attrition filling out a field where the gap between the top of the ratings and the bottom is enormous.
Today's featured race is free in full — one email, no card.
The pace picture
The tempo band is Slow and the pressure reading is 16.13 per cent, which is about as soft as a Group-grade eight-horse field gets. Kingswood (8) is the only runner who maps to lead on the predicted running positions, and he does it from the outside gate. Birdman (6) is next closest on the grid, with Lindermann (1) third and Buckaroo (2) fourth. Attrition (3) is the second-furthest back at seventh, and the grid has Cosmic Crusader (5) settling last of the eight — which is where Kingsley and the numbers part company, because his read is that barrier three lets the favourite take up a spot much closer to the speed than the raw figure suggests.
Either way, a slow tempo rewards the horses who are already in the race at the 600m. Buckaroo is the runner most obviously hurt by it: he gets a long way back and, with this little pressure projected, there is simply nothing coming back to him late. He has also gone 728 days since his last win.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Cosmic Crusader (5), who is also the race's Golden Bullet, the site's official tip. He was caught wide and widest on the turn last start and still finished off strongly, a run Kingsley is happy to forgive entirely. He has won ten of twenty, 1800m is his trip, and he is rated $1.85 against a $2.60 market this morning — the standout value read on the card.
His second pick Lindermann (1) draws the fence and, on Kingsley's read, can roll forward and dictate his own terms the way he did when he saluted at Randwick last start. The catch is price: he is rated $4 against a $2.70 market this morning, so the market has him considerably shorter than the ratings do.
His third pick Birdman (6) missed the jump and was checked last time and still hit the line hard, which makes the bare result misleading. He is second-up and fitter, rated $9 against a $5.00 market this morning, with the grid position the query rather than the ability.
His fourth pick Kingswood (8) won at this track last start humping 61kg and drops two kilos today. He maps forward, he is two from five at the distance, and he is rated $34 against a $16 market this morning — the ratings have him a clear notch below the top few.
Was caught wide and widest on the turn last start and still ran on strongly, throw that out. Barrier 3 now and he settles right on the speed, which is everything with so little early pressure on paper. Best acceleration in the field by daylight, 10 wins from 20 and the 1800m is his trip. A Golden Bullet and one of my main plays for the day.
Draws the fence and bounces straight to the front. Very little early speed on paper, so he'll be able to dictate his own terms again. Did exactly that when he saluted at Randwick last time and he's rank 1 on cruising here. Only knock is the market has him a fair bit shorter than I rate him. Second pick.
Missed the jump, got checked and was still hitting the line hard last time, a lot better than the bare result. Second-up and fitter for the run. Does map to get well back though, and that's the query. Third pick.
Won here last start humping 61kg and drops 2kg today. Maps to settle handy and he's 2 from 5 at the trip. Ratings just have him a notch under the top few. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the broadest measure of a horse's overall quality. Cosmic Crusader tops it at 99.7424, from Pinstriped (4) at 94.4994 and Lindermann third.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which prices a horse's best time against the grade and the weight carried. It is a two-way photo: Cosmic Crusader ranks first on 104.89, Lindermann second on 104.83, Birdman third on 103.81.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and here Lindermann is rank one on 87.4, ahead of Cosmic Crusader on 83.4 and Kingswood on 81.4. Acceleration measures the sharpness of the turn of foot, and Cosmic Crusader owns it at 114.694 — well clear of Pinstriped on 107.399 and Buckaroo on 101.881.
The one-line summary: Cosmic Crusader ranks first on CAM, CSW and acceleration, and second on cruising speed. No other runner in the race ranks first on anything except Lindermann's cruising figure.
The rest
Attrition laboured home at this track last start and is rank eight on CAM, CSW and acceleration; he is rated $501 against an $81 market this morning. Middle Earth (7) held ground without threatening last start, is winless from five here and wants further, rated $351 against a $61 market. Pinstriped rates strongly on CAM and acceleration but battled on for second at Sandown in far weaker company, and is rated $251 against a $31 market.
What to watch: whether Kingswood can lead cheaply from gate eight, and how far back Cosmic Crusader actually settles from barrier three.
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This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.