Grafton Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Read
Grafton Race 6 preview: Kingsley's four selections, rated prices against this morning's market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Eight go around at Grafton in Race 6, a $27,000 affair jumping at 3:55pm AEST, and the rated card has a clear headline act with the market and the ratings disagreeing sharply on two of the fancied runners.
The race
Fine weather, a Good surface and the rail out three metres for the entire circuit — no excuses on offer, and with only eight runners there is room for everyone to find a spot. This is a race where the class-time ratings and the market have drifted apart, which is usually where the value sits.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 60.69 per cent — genuine enough that nobody gets a soft, uncontested trip, but not the sort of meltdown that flattens the leaders. Copenhagen Cat (8) is the one who maps to lead, with a ppir of 1 from barrier five, and City Of Tears (3) sits next closest on a ppir of 2 out of gate three. Picupstixx (11) is third on the ppir list from the inside draw, with Land Speed (5) and Hard As Brok (4) filling the midfield.
The far end of the map tells the other half of the story. Rainbow Lass (9), Midwest Princess (10) and Prince Of Prophets (2) have the three highest ppir figures in the field, with Prince Of Prophets at 8 — last, from barrier seven, carrying 60kg over a trip that looks short of his best. An average tempo with real pressure at 60.69 per cent gives the closers something to aim at without handing the race to them.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Hard As Brok (4), rated $3 against a $2.90 market this morning — the rare case where the rating and the market essentially agree. The case is simple: he is the best-rated runner in the field on CSW by a clear margin, he won his Tamworth trial leading into this, and he steps down sharply in trip from a mile into an easier assignment. From barrier four he settles midfield and will be finishing off.
His second pick Picupstixx (11) is rated $10 against an $11 market. He was buried back and wide at Coffs and still hit the line, which reads better than the bare result, and he returns to Grafton where he has won a couple of his 19 starts. Barrier one and Archie Mc Colm aboard is a useful combination; he settles midfield on a ppir of 3 and finishes off. Deep into the preparation, but the form is holding.
His third pick Midwest Princess (10) is rated $12 against an $11 market, so the early money has already found her. She missed the jump at Bowraville with the shape against her and still made ground late. She is back at her home track, maps to settle a touch closer this time, and only one runner in the race rates higher for acceleration.
His fourth pick Rainbow Lass (9) is rated $21 with a $21 market — an exact match. The Lismore shape did not suit and she never got into the race; barrier two helps, she gets back and comes home, and her acceleration figure supports that pattern. The obvious qualifier is 487 days since her last win.
Where Kingsley parts ways with the market is further up the board. Copenhagen Cat is rated $5.50 against a $3.10 market this morning, with one win from 15 and none from five at the trip, and she is up 3.5kg on last start's 51.5kg. Prince Of Prophets is rated $9 against a $6.50 market, resuming off five months without a first-up win in four attempts. City Of Tears is rated $8 against a $6.00 market, four runs into the preparation when both her wins came fresh. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
Best rated in the field by genuine daylight on CSW and that class edge is the story here. Won his trial at Tamworth leading in, so he's ready to go first-up. Big drop in trip from a mile and he settles midfield, so he'll be doing his best work late. Drawn 4 of 8 and into an easier race. Top pick.
No comment available for this runner.
Got back and wide at Coffs and still hit the line, a fair bit better than that result reads. Back at Grafton where he's won a couple from 19 and drawn 1 of 8, with Archie Mc Colm a strong booking. Settles midfield and finishes off. Deep into the prep but the form's holding. Second pick.
Missed the jump at Bowraville and the shape was against her, yet she still made ground late. Back at her home track, maps to settle just off the speed this time, and only 1 horse in the race has more acceleration. Early money there. Third pick.
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CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Hard As Brok owns it at 82.22, ranked first with the next best well adrift. CAM, the composite ability measure, is headed by Midwest Princess at 72.9693, with Prince Of Prophets second on 72.0988. Cruising speed — the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race — is led by Copenhagen Cat at 75.8, ahead of City Of Tears on 72.8. Acceleration, the late turn of foot, ranks Prince Of Prophets first at 81.7047, Midwest Princess second at 75.4803 and Rainbow Lass third at 71.1385. Copenhagen Cat is last of the eight on that measure, which matters for a runner setting the tempo.
What to watch: whether Copenhagen Cat can dictate softly enough to blunt the closers, because the acceleration ranks say she cannot afford a sprint home.
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