Rosehill Race 6 Preview: Outta Line Rates On Top

A $60,000 Rosehill assignment over 1300m with ten runners, and a race where Kingsley's rated prices sit longer than the market on every one of his top four. That tells you most of the story before the gates open.

The race

Race 6 at Rosehill jumps at 4:45pm AEST on Wednesday 30 September, partly cloudy overhead, a good surface underfoot and the rail out five metres the entire way. Ten go around, with weights spread from Titanium Miss (1) at the 62kg top to Spirits Burn Deep (16) down at 54kg. There is genuine Sydney depth here — Chris Waller with James McDonald, Joseph Pride with Tyler Schiller, Waterhouse and Bott with Rachel King, Snowden with Tim Clark — and three of the market's shorter runners are either resuming or in the early part of a campaign, which is where the honest questions live.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Average and the pressure gauge sits at 37.27 per cent, so this is not a race that figures to be run in a hurry or with anyone truly harassing the leader. Spirits Burn Deep is the runner who maps to lead, with the lowest predicted in-running position in the field, and behind him Regal Problem (2) from barrier four is the next closest to the speed. His second pick Outta Line (12) is the third-closest on the pace projections and, drawn nine, is the one Kingsley expects to roll forward rather than fight his own nature.

The shape hurts several of the more fancied chances. Miles Of Glory (3) is projected to settle a long way back despite hitting the line hard last time, Live (10) maps to be well back for the second start running, Kirribilli (8) is second-last on the predicted positions and Change My Address (6), out in barrier ten and resuming, is the furthest back of the lot. With modest pressure up front, a field of closers arriving together is exactly the pattern that flatters the horses already in front of them.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Regal Problem (2), who won at Kensington last start after missing the kick and grinding three wide without cover — a tough, honest win. He is third-up, Schiller retains the ride, he settles midfield and he holds a class edge over most of these. The catch is the money: rated $2.70 against a $2.50 market this morning, so the market has him shorter than Kingsley does and there is no value on offer.

His second pick Outta Line (12) is the one with the numbers. Kingsley liked the trial, the horse has two wins from three fresh, and 1300m first-up is fine even if he will want further later. Rated $11 against a $9.50 market this morning. His third pick Ertijaaj (17) resumes for Waller with McDonald aboard and two wins from four starts on the record, but he is short of his peak trip and needs the run to fall right from midfield — rated $5 against a $4.40 market. His fourth pick Live (10) was restrained and forced wide last start and still closed hardest of them, so the shape was entirely against her; she is second-up with upside but maps back again, rated $8.50 against a $7.00 market. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

The metrics

Outta Line is the standout on three of the four ratings. He ranks first on CAM, the composite ability figure that blends a horse's overall performance profile, at 88.4762; first on CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, at 91.24; and first on cruising speed, the measure of the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, at 84.7. Ertijaaj ranks second on CSW at 90.07, Spirits Burn Deep ranks second on CAM at 87.75 and second on cruising speed at 81.7.

Acceleration — the finishing-burst rating — belongs to Urafiki (9), ranked first in the field at 97.5068, with Kirribilli second at 96.1443. Both are honest numbers attached to awkward profiles: Urafiki resumes after 148 days into much stronger company, and Kirribilli has not won in 348 days.

Titanium Miss (1) carries 62kg off a run where she was ten lengths from the winner, and ranks last of the ten on both CAM and acceleration.

Watch whether Outta Line takes up the forward position the map gives him, because at 37.27 per cent pressure nobody in this field is obliged to make him earn it.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.