Illawarra Grange Race 7 Preview: Maidoff Rated On Top
Illawarra Grange race 7 preview: rated prices, the pace map and Kingsley's top four for a seven-horse sprint jumping at 4:50pm AEST.
A seven-horse field for $45,000 at Illawarra Grange, fine weather, a Good surface and a rail out two metres from the 1600m to the 400m. Small field, tight ratings, and a market that disagrees with Kingsley on four of the seven.
The race
Race 7 jumps at 4:50pm AEST over 1300m on a Good track, with the rail at +2m from the 1600m to the 400m and true for the remainder. Seven runners means clean air for most and very few excuses, and the ratings reflect that compression — on the class-speed-weight time measure the top three are separated by less than a length and a half of rating points. Weights run from Mogwai's 60.5kg down to Point Score at 56.5kg. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race, so the story here is Kingsley's own card and where it parts company with the overnight quotes.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 37.27 per cent — modest, and a long way from a race that falls apart up front. Bold And Blazen (4) is the one runner with a ppir of 1, the lowest predicted settling position in the field, so he maps to lead and should get to do it his way from barrier 3. Point Score (9) is next closest at a ppir of 2, with Mogwai (1) at 3 from the inside draw.
That shape matters most at the other end. Bang On Time (7) has the highest ppir in the race at 7, meaning he settles furthest back, and Brazil (5) and Autumn Sky (6) are not far in front of him. In a seven-horse sprint with an average tempo and little pressure, the ones giving away ground early need the leader to over-race, and nothing in this map suggests he will.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Maidoff (2), winner over this track and trip a fortnight ago, pressing forward, taking charge near the 200m and clearing out by 2.3 lengths. Third-up now and best in the race on the combined ratings, with K S Latham a rider Kingsley rates picking up the mount. Barrier 7 is the outside, but in a field of seven that is a technicality. He is rated $2.10 against a $2.00 market this morning — the figure says he is the right favourite, the price says there is nothing in it for you.
His second pick Bang On Time (7) missed the jump here last start, was three wide throughout and still finished off well. Second-up with only four starts, Schofield retains the ride, and there has been early money. Rated $4.40 against a $3.90 market.
His third pick Bold And Blazen (4) led and fought all the way last time, only collared inside the 100m and still coming at the line. He gets a far kinder draw now and the pace map hands him the front. Rated $16 against a $9.50 market — a clear disagreement, with Kingsley the longer of the two.
His fourth pick Mogwai (1) resumes off 113 days with a solid fresh record, drops in grade and settles handy from barrier 2. The 60.5kg is the problem and the winning drought is real. Rated $23 against a $12 market.
Won here 2 weeks ago, pressed forward, took over at the 200m and drew clear by 2.3L. Third-up now, best of them on the combined ratings and Latham is a rider I rate taking over. Drawn the outside gate but only 7 of them. Top pick, the price just gives you nothing at the quote.
Missed the jump and swung 3 wide here last start, still worked home nicely. Second-up, only 4 starts so there's upside, Schofield sticks and there's been early money. Biggest threat to the top pick. 2nd pick.
Led and fought hard last start, only headed inside the 100m and kept coming. Best cruising rating in the race and maps to bowl along in front again, this time from a much better draw. 3rd pick.
Resuming off 113 days and rates highest on CSW, though it's tight at the top. Solid fresh record, drops into easier company and settles handy from barrier 2. The 60.5kg is the knock and he hasn't won in a while. 4th pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the single number for overall quality: Maidoff ranks first on it at 79.26, with Point Score second and Brazil third. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, what a horse has actually run against the clock for the grade and weight carried — and here Mogwai tops the field at 87.17 from Bold And Blazen at 86.25 and Bang On Time at 85.92, which is the tight top end referenced in his notes.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold mid-race without effort, and Bold And Blazen ranks first at 79.1 — the number behind the front-running map. Acceleration is the turn-of-foot rating, and Brazil ranks first at 86.58, though Kingsley's read is that he wants considerably further than 1300m and gets too far back to use it. Point Score ranks second on acceleration but bottom of the field on CSW. Autumn Sky ranks seventh on CAM, cruising and acceleration, and Kingsley's view is blunt: resuming off 184 days with one career start and a trial beaten a long way, she is too short at a $6.00 market this morning against his rated $11.
What to watch: whether Bold And Blazen is allowed an uncontested lead at that 37.27 per cent pressure reading, because if he is, the backmarkers have one run to get it right.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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