Canterbury Race 6 Preview: Tips & Rated Prices For The 1250m

A seven-horse sprint over 1250m on a fine day and a True rail, and the whole race hinges on one number: how hard they go early. Kingsley says the speed is genuine, and that changes who you want.

The race

Canterbury Race 6 is a $60,000 contest jumping at 3:45pm AEST on 5 August, run on a fine track with the rail in the True position. It is a compact field of seven, but the depth sits in the top half of the market: Snack Bar at $1.85, Clear Proof at $6.50, Rimbaud at $8.50 and Useapin at $11 all rate as live players, with Silencio Porfavor at $13 the next in. The map, not the numbers alone, is what pulls this race apart.

The pace picture

The tempo band here is Very Fast with a pressure reading of 87.34 per cent — a strongly run race where the leaders will be under pressure a long way out. Rimbaud is the only runner who maps to lead, with a ppir of 1 (ppir measures where a horse settles, 1 being closest to the front). That is the query on him: his own comment flags that being on-pace into this tempo at 1250m is not where you want to be.

The shape reads made for the closers. Useapin gets right back on a ppir of 14 and Balkans further back still on 13, three wide with no cover from barrier 8 and burning petrol. The difference is that the hot speed sets up beautifully for a swooper who saves ground, and Useapin does exactly that on the fence. Clear Proof, drawn the box seat with a ppir of 3, is the one positioned to take full advantage without doing the early work.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's No.1 pick is Snack Bar at a rated $1.85 — the best horse in the race on the numbers, but a case where his price and his verdict split. He rates it the top runner yet is happy to watch, because it is short and there is no edge in the race. His No.2 is Rimbaud at $8.50, though he calls the price short and the on-pace map a genuine query into this tempo.

The value is further down the card. His No.3, Useapin at $11, is the horse the pace shape suits most: he gets back but has the acceleration to use a fast-run race, saves ground on the fence, and is fitter third-up with Zac Lloyd aboard. His No.4 is Silencio Porfavor at $13, who posted his best number last start and maps midfield with cover — cheap enough, and the form is holding. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

Worth stating plainly: Kingsley would rather take on Clear Proof at $6.50 than back him at the price, and his rated $35 on Balkans says the market and his read agree — plenty to find from that tricky draw.

The metrics

The numbers back the top of the market, but they scatter across different horses. On CSW — a class-speed-weight time rating — Snack Bar is top-ranked (cswRank 1), with Useapin second and Clear Proof third. On CAM, the composite ability rating, Clear Proof leads the field (camRank 1) ahead of Snack Bar.

Cruising speed, a measure of the tempo a horse can sustain, favours the on-pace runner: Rimbaud ranks first, Clear Proof second, Silencio Porfavor third. But acceleration — the ability to quicken off that cruise — is where Snack Bar stands clear, ranked first in the field, with Balkans second and Clear Proof third. That combination, top CSW and the best turn of foot, is why Snack Bar rates the best horse even as Kingsley leaves it alone at the price. Star Prediction is last-ranked on every metric and rated $601 for a reason.

What to watch: whether Rimbaud can hold the front in a Very Fast tempo, or whether the closers — Useapin first among them — arrive over the top of them late.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.